The 2026 general election
Sweden's general election on 13 September 2026 decides all 349 members of the Riksdag, and a party needs at least 4% of the national vote to enter it.
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De-vigged · 2026-09-15 13:37 UTC35 markets across 2 venues.
Sweden 2026 electionsWho will be the next prime minister?
Largest spread on the board · 2.7pSMagdalena Andersson Probability 88.0% Odds 1.14 Spread 85.4–88.1 Spread (pts) 2.7 ▾
| Platform | Implied | De-vigged | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 87.5% | 88.1% | |
| Kalshi | 88.0% | 85.4% |
MUlf Kristersson Probability 10.6% Odds 9.43 Spread 10.6–11.7 Spread (pts) 1.1 ▾
| Platform | Implied | De-vigged | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 12.0% | 11.7% | |
| Polymarket | 10.5% | 10.6% |
KDEbba Busch Probability 0.6% Odds 165.46 Spread 0.6–1.0 Spread (pts) 0.4 ▾
| Platform | Implied | De-vigged | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| Polymarket | 0.6% | 0.6% |
SDJimmie Åkesson Probability 0.3% Odds 330.41 Spread 0.3–1.9 Spread (pts) 1.6 ▾
| Platform | Implied | De-vigged | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 2.0% | 1.9% | |
| Polymarket | 0.3% | 0.3% |
CElisabeth Thand Ringqvist Probability 0.2% Odds 496.75 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
| Platform | Implied | De-vigged | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.2% | 0.2% |
MPAmanda Lind Probability 0.1% Odds 1987.00 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
| Platform | Implied | De-vigged | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.1% | 0.1% |
CAnna-Karin Hatt Probability 0.1% Odds 1987.00 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
| Platform | Implied | De-vigged | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.1% | 0.1% |
MPDaniel Helldén Probability 0.1% Odds 1987.00 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
| Platform | Implied | De-vigged | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.1% | 0.1% |
VNooshi Dadgostar Probability 0.1% Odds 1987.00 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
| Platform | Implied | De-vigged | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.1% | 0.1% |
LSimona Mohamsson Probability 0.1% Odds 1987.00 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
| Platform | Implied | De-vigged | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Fresh — Odds updated: — Methodology
About the general election
The Riksdag election is held every four years, on the second Sunday in September, and decides all 349 seats in Sweden's single-chamber parliament. Of those seats, 310 are fixed constituency seats and 39 are adjustment seats, allocated to make the distribution between parties as proportional as possible across the whole country. A party must win at least 4% of the vote nationally to enter the Riksdag, or at least 12% of the vote in a single constituency to win seats there alone. A candidate can also be elected directly by personal vote, which requires at least 5% of their party's ballots in the constituency. Who becomes prime minister is decided by the Riksdag after the election, through a vote in which the Speaker proposes a candidate, who is confirmed unless a majority of MPs vote against.