CANDIDATECASINO General election 2026
Movers 24h S 88.0 ▲ 0.5 M 10.6 ▼ 1.0 KD 0.6 ▲ 0.3 SD 0.3 ▲ 0.1 C 0.2 - 0.0

The 2026 general election

Sweden's general election on 13 September 2026 decides all 349 members of the Riksdag, and a party needs at least 4% of the national vote to enter it.

Last updated:

Markets

De-vigged · 2026-09-15 13:37 UTC
Next prime minister after the 2026 election SMagdalena Andersson 88.0%1.14 no poll equivalent · ▲ 0.5 Largest party in the 2026 general election SSwedish Social Democratic Party 100.0%1.00 no poll equivalent · ▲ 0.9 Second-largest party in the 2026 general election MModerate Party 99.2%1.01 no poll equivalent · ▲ 0.2 Third-largest party in the 2026 general election SDSweden Democrats 98.9%1.01 no poll equivalent · - 0.0 Tidö majority in the 2026 general election ?Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections? 3.4%29.85 1 venue only · ▼ 1.5 Liberals win seats in the 2026 general election LLiberals 100.0%1.00 1 venue only · ▲ 0.2 SD or M More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election MModerate Party 100.0%1.00 1 venue only · - 0.0 V or MP More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election VLeft Party 99.8%1.00 1 venue only · ▼ 0.1 V or C More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election VLeft Party 99.8%1.00 1 venue only · - 0.0 V or KD More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election VLeft Party 100.0%1.00 1 venue only · - 0.0 MP or C More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election CCentre Party 100.0%1.00 1 venue only · - 0.0 MP or KD More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election KDChristian Democrats 60.0%1.67 1 venue only · ▲ 2.0 C or KD More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election CCentre Party 99.9%1.00 1 venue only · - 0.0 Fourth-largest party in the 2026 general election VLeft Party 13.6%7.36 no poll equivalent · ▲ 0.2 Fifth-largest party in the 2026 Riksdag election CCentre Party 6.8%14.60 1 venue only · - 0.0 Sixth-Largest Party in the 2026 Riksdag Election KDChristian Democrats 5.8%17.17 1 venue only · - 0.0 Turnout in the 2026 Riksdag election ?82-84% 46.9%2.13 1 venue only · ▲ 4.4 S's margin of victory in the 2026 Riksdag election ?S 7-10% 89.9%1.11 1 venue only · ▼ 1.8 S over/under 31% in the 2026 general election ?Under 100.0%1.00 1 venue only · - 0.0 SD Over or Under 19% in the 2026 Riksdag Election ?Under 100.0%1.00 1 venue only · - 0.0 M Over/Under 17% in the 2026 Riksdag Election ?Over 99.6%1.00 1 venue only · - 0.0 V over/under 7% in the 2026 Riksdag election ?Over 100.0%1.00 1 venue only · - 0.0 MP over/under 7% in the 2026 general election ?Under 99.5%1.01 1 venue only · - 0.0 KD Over/Under 6% in the 2026 Riksdag Election ?Over 94.0%1.06 1 venue only · ▼ 0.1 S's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election ?27-30% 99.8%1.00 1 venue only · ▲ 0.7 SD's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election ?16-18% 98.5%1.02 1 venue only · ▼ 1.0 M's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election ?18-20% 93.3%1.07 1 venue only · ▼ 1.0 Left Party (V) Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election ?7-9% 99.6%1.00 1 venue only · - 0.0 MP's Vote Share in the 2026 General Election ?5-7% 99.3%1.01 1 venue only · ▼ 0.1 Centre Party's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election ?7-9% 83.6%1.20 1 venue only · ▲ 0.1 KD's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election ?5-7% 99.1%1.01 1 venue only · ▼ 0.1 S Seat Count in the 2026 Riksdag Election ?<105 99.7%1.00 1 venue only · - 0.0 C over/under 6% in the 2026 general election ?Over 100.0%1.00 1 venue only · - 0.0 Örebropartiet Win Seats in the 2026 Riksdag Election ?Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats? 0.7%153.85 1 venue only · ▲ 0.2 Seventh-largest party in the 2026 Riksdag election MPGreen Party 72.2%1.39 1 venue only · ▲ 2.4 All markets

35 markets across 2 venues.

Sweden 2026 elections

Who will be the next prime minister?

Largest spread on the board · 2.7p
Outcome Probability Odds Spread Spread (pts)
SMagdalena Andersson Probability 88.0% Odds 1.14 Spread 85.4–88.1 Spread (pts) 2.7
Spread between sources85.4–88.1
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket87.5%88.1%
Kalshi88.0%85.4%
MUlf Kristersson Probability 10.6% Odds 9.43 Spread 10.6–11.7 Spread (pts) 1.1
Spread between sources10.6–11.7
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Kalshi12.0%11.7%
Polymarket10.5%10.6%
KDEbba Busch Probability 0.6% Odds 165.46 Spread 0.6–1.0 Spread (pts) 0.4
Spread between sources0.6–1.0
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Kalshi1.0%1.0%
Polymarket0.6%0.6%
SDJimmie Åkesson Probability 0.3% Odds 330.41 Spread 0.3–1.9 Spread (pts) 1.6
Spread between sources0.3–1.9
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Kalshi2.0%1.9%
Polymarket0.3%0.3%
CElisabeth Thand Ringqvist Probability 0.2% Odds 496.75 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.2%0.2%
MPAmanda Lind Probability 0.1% Odds 1987.00 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.1%
CAnna-Karin Hatt Probability 0.1% Odds 1987.00 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.1%
MPDaniel Helldén Probability 0.1% Odds 1987.00 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.1%
VNooshi Dadgostar Probability 0.1% Odds 1987.00 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.1%
LSimona Mohamsson Probability 0.1% Odds 1987.00 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.1%

Fresh — Odds updated: Methodology

About the general election

The Riksdag election is held every four years, on the second Sunday in September, and decides all 349 seats in Sweden's single-chamber parliament. Of those seats, 310 are fixed constituency seats and 39 are adjustment seats, allocated to make the distribution between parties as proportional as possible across the whole country. A party must win at least 4% of the vote nationally to enter the Riksdag, or at least 12% of the vote in a single constituency to win seats there alone. A candidate can also be elected directly by personal vote, which requires at least 5% of their party's ballots in the constituency. Who becomes prime minister is decided by the Riksdag after the election, through a vote in which the Speaker proposes a candidate, who is confirmed unless a majority of MPs vote against.

Analysis

Sources