CANDIDATECASINO General election 2026
Movers 24h 27-30% 99.8 ▲ 0.7 33%+ 0.1 - 0.0 30-33% 0.1 ▼ 0.4 <27% 0.1 ▼ 0.3
Featured market

Tidö majority in the 2026 general election

Yes 3.4No 96.6
Y Yes29.41 · 3.4%
N No1.04 · 96.6%

S's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election

Polymarket prices the most likely bracket at 99.8%, as of 15 September 2026.

Last updated:

Leading outcome
99.8%
27-30% ▲ 0.7 in 24h

Odds

Outcome Probability Odds Spread Spread (pts)
27-30% Probability 99.8% Odds 1.00 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket99.6%99.8%
33%+ Probability 0.1% Odds 1994.00 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.1%
30-33% Probability 0.1% Odds 1994.00 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.1%
<27% Probability 0.1% Odds 1994.00 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.1%

Fresh — Odds updated: — Methodology

Odds over time

The price over time, one line per outcome.

Odds over time100%50%0%10 Sep15 Sep100%33%+30-33%<27%
<27% — — 0.1%
OutcomeObservedProbability
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.1%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%99.8%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.0%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.4%
<27%0.3%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.6%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.3%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.6%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.3%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.6%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.3%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.3%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.3%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.3%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.3%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.2%
<27%0.3%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.2%
<27%0.3%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.3%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.3%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.3%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.2%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.5%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.4%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.4%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.4%
27-30%99.1%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.8%
27-30%98.5%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.9%
27-30%98.4%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.9%
27-30%98.4%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%1.0%
27-30%98.3%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%1.1%
27-30%98.2%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%1.1%
27-30%98.2%
<27%0.6%
33%+0.0%
30-33%1.1%
27-30%98.2%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%1.3%
27-30%98.0%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.1%
30-33%1.3%
27-30%98.0%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.0%
30-33%1.6%
27-30%97.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.0%
30-33%1.6%
27-30%97.6%
<27%0.8%
33%+0.1%
30-33%1.9%
27-30%97.3%
<27%0.8%
33%+0.3%
30-33%2.8%
27-30%96.2%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.2%
30-33%2.9%
27-30%96.2%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.2%
30-33%2.9%
27-30%96.2%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.2%
30-33%3.0%
27-30%96.1%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.2%
30-33%3.1%
27-30%96.0%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.2%
30-33%3.1%
27-30%96.0%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.2%
30-33%3.2%
27-30%95.9%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.2%
30-33%3.5%
27-30%95.6%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.2%
30-33%4.3%
27-30%94.8%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.2%
30-33%3.9%
27-30%95.2%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.2%
30-33%3.8%
27-30%95.3%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.2%
30-33%3.6%
27-30%95.5%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.2%
30-33%4.1%
27-30%95.0%
<27%0.6%
33%+0.2%
30-33%4.5%
27-30%94.7%
<27%0.6%
33%+0.2%
30-33%3.9%
27-30%95.3%
<27%0.6%
33%+0.2%
30-33%4.0%
27-30%95.1%
<27%0.7%
33%+0.2%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.4%
<27%0.6%
33%+0.2%
30-33%0.7%
27-30%98.5%
<27%1.1%
33%+0.2%
30-33%1.9%
27-30%96.8%
<27%2.8%
33%+0.2%
30-33%2.0%
27-30%95.0%
<27%3.5%
33%+0.0%
30-33%0.0%
27-30%96.4%
<27%6.0%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.1%
27-30%93.9%
<27%8.5%
33%+0.1%
30-33%0.9%
27-30%90.5%
<27%9.9%
33%+0.2%
30-33%1.0%
27-30%88.9%
<27%10.9%
33%+0.3%
30-33%1.5%
27-30%87.3%
<27%9.8%
33%+0.4%
30-33%1.7%
27-30%88.0%
<27%8.8%
33%+0.6%
30-33%2.6%
27-30%88.0%
<27%8.4%
33%+1.0%
30-33%3.0%
27-30%87.6%
<27%8.1%
33%+1.3%
30-33%3.0%
27-30%87.6%
<27%9.2%
33%+1.3%
30-33%2.9%
27-30%86.6%
<27%6.2%
33%+2.6%
30-33%4.8%
27-30%86.4%
<27%10.9%
33%+3.7%
30-33%7.4%
27-30%78.0%
<27%18.7%
33%+3.9%
30-33%11.2%
27-30%66.3%
<27%26.5%
33%+4.7%
30-33%11.9%
27-30%57.0%
<27%25.7%
33%+0.8%
30-33%12.6%
27-30%61.0%
<27%25.9%
33%+0.9%
30-33%8.1%
27-30%65.1%
<27%26.2%
33%+0.9%
30-33%11.3%
27-30%61.6%
<27%26.2%
33%+1.0%
30-33%11.3%
27-30%61.5%
<27%25.9%
33%+1.9%
30-33%12.9%
27-30%59.3%
<27%25.3%
33%+6.5%
30-33%21.9%
27-30%46.3%
<27%25.9%
33%+4.2%
30-33%22.5%
27-30%47.4%
<27%25.9%
33%+4.2%
30-33%22.4%
27-30%47.4%
<27%26.1%
33%+4.3%
30-33%22.5%
27-30%47.1%
<27%26.0%
33%+7.0%
30-33%22.5%
27-30%44.5%
<27%26.3%
33%+4.5%
30-33%22.7%
27-30%46.5%
<27%26.3%
33%+4.5%
30-33%22.7%
27-30%46.5%
<27%25.8%
33%+7.1%
30-33%22.4%
27-30%44.7%
<27%24.2%
33%+4.7%
30-33%22.7%
27-30%48.4%
<27%22.7%
33%+5.4%
30-33%21.7%
27-30%50.2%
<27%24.0%
33%+8.1%
30-33%23.0%
27-30%44.9%
<27%24.8%
33%+5.1%
30-33%23.7%
27-30%46.4%
<27%28.7%
33%+5.8%
30-33%27.4%
27-30%38.1%
<27%22.1%
33%+2.8%
30-33%21.2%
27-30%53.9%
<27%22.2%
33%+2.4%
30-33%21.3%
27-30%54.1%
<27%22.2%
33%+2.4%
30-33%21.3%
27-30%54.1%
<27%21.7%
33%+2.4%
30-33%21.3%
27-30%54.6%
<27%21.7%
33%+2.4%
30-33%21.3%
27-30%54.6%
<27%21.9%
33%+2.4%
30-33%21.4%
27-30%54.4%
<27%21.9%
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33%+3.6%
30-33%10.9%
27-30%49.2%
<27%36.3%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.9%
27-30%49.2%
<27%36.3%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.9%
27-30%49.2%
<27%36.3%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.9%
27-30%49.2%
<27%36.3%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.9%
27-30%49.2%
<27%36.3%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.9%
27-30%49.2%
<27%36.8%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.4%
27-30%49.2%
<27%36.8%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.4%
27-30%49.2%
<27%36.8%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.4%
27-30%49.2%
<27%36.8%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.4%
27-30%49.2%
<27%36.4%
33%+3.5%
30-33%11.3%
27-30%48.7%
<27%36.4%
33%+3.5%
30-33%11.3%
27-30%48.7%
<27%36.8%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.4%
27-30%49.2%
<27%36.6%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.8%
27-30%49.0%
<27%36.8%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.4%
27-30%49.2%
<27%36.6%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.8%
27-30%49.0%
<27%37.1%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.3%
27-30%49.0%
<27%37.1%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.3%
27-30%49.0%
<27%36.9%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.8%
27-30%48.7%
<27%36.9%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.8%
27-30%48.7%
<27%36.6%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.8%
27-30%49.0%
<27%36.6%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.8%
27-30%49.0%
<27%36.6%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.8%
27-30%49.0%
<27%36.6%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.8%
27-30%49.0%
<27%36.6%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.8%
27-30%49.0%
<27%36.6%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.8%
27-30%49.0%
<27%36.6%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.8%
27-30%49.0%
<27%36.6%
33%+3.6%
30-33%10.8%
27-30%49.0%
<27%37.5%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.3%
27-30%48.7%
<27%37.8%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.2%
27-30%48.5%
<27%37.8%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.2%
27-30%48.5%
<27%37.8%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.2%
27-30%48.5%
<27%37.8%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.2%
27-30%48.5%
<27%37.8%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.2%
27-30%48.5%
<27%37.8%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.2%
27-30%48.5%
<27%37.8%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.2%
27-30%48.5%
<27%37.8%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.2%
27-30%48.5%
<27%37.8%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.2%
27-30%48.5%
<27%37.8%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.2%
27-30%48.5%
<27%37.8%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.2%
27-30%48.5%
<27%37.8%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.2%
27-30%48.5%
<27%37.8%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.2%
27-30%48.5%
<27%38.0%
33%+3.5%
30-33%9.7%
27-30%48.7%
<27%38.2%
33%+3.6%
30-33%9.3%
27-30%49.0%
<27%38.0%
33%+3.5%
30-33%9.7%
27-30%48.7%
<27%38.2%
33%+3.6%
30-33%9.3%
27-30%49.0%
<27%38.0%
33%+3.5%
30-33%9.7%
27-30%48.7%
<27%38.2%
33%+3.6%
30-33%9.3%
27-30%49.0%
<27%38.2%
33%+3.6%
30-33%9.3%
27-30%49.0%
<27%38.2%
33%+3.6%
30-33%9.3%
27-30%49.0%
<27%38.0%
33%+3.5%
30-33%9.7%
27-30%48.7%
<27%38.2%
33%+3.6%
30-33%9.3%
27-30%49.0%
<27%38.0%
33%+3.5%
30-33%9.7%
27-30%48.7%
<27%38.0%
33%+3.5%
30-33%9.7%
27-30%48.7%
<27%37.4%
33%+3.5%
30-33%11.1%
27-30%48.0%
<27%38.9%
33%+3.6%
30-33%9.3%
27-30%48.2%
<27%38.9%
33%+3.6%
30-33%9.3%
27-30%48.2%
<27%38.9%
33%+3.6%
30-33%9.3%
27-30%48.2%
<27%38.9%
33%+3.6%
30-33%9.3%
27-30%48.2%
<27%38.9%
33%+3.6%
30-33%9.3%
27-30%48.2%
<27%38.9%
33%+3.6%
30-33%9.3%
27-30%48.2%
<27%38.9%
33%+3.6%
30-33%9.3%
27-30%48.2%
<27%38.3%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.7%
27-30%47.5%
<27%38.3%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.7%
27-30%47.5%
<27%38.3%
33%+3.5%
30-33%10.7%
27-30%47.5%

Other markets in this election

About the odds

How this question resolves

The market resolves according to the share of valid votes received by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the 13 September 2026 election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket.

The vote share is defined as the number of valid votes for the party divided by the total number of valid votes in the election.

Only vote shares that the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) attributes to the party count. Vote shares attributed to other parties or electoral designations do not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.

If the party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the successor party's vote share counts toward resolution.

If the results of the election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket.

The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting; if there is ambiguity, it resolves solely on the official results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, val.se).

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