CANDIDATECASINO General election 2026
Movers 24h 82-84% 46.9 ▲ 4.4 <82% 22.1 ▲ 4.1 84-86% 15.6 ▼ 7.4 86-88% 8.2 ▼ 2.9 88%+ 7.2 ▲ 1.7
Featured market

Tidö majority in the 2026 general election

Yes 3.4No 96.7
Y Yes29.85 · 3.4%
N No1.03 · 96.7%

Turnout in the 2026 Riksdag election

Polymarket put 46.9% on this bracket as of 15 September 2026 for turnout in the Riksdag election on 13 September 2026.

Last updated:

Leading outcome
46.9%
82-84% ▲ 4.4 in 24h

Odds

Outcome Probability Odds Spread Spread (pts)
82-84% Probability 46.9% Odds 2.13 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket72.5%46.9%
<82% Probability 22.1% Odds 4.52 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket34.2%22.1%
84-86% Probability 15.6% Odds 6.42 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket24.1%15.6%
86-88% Probability 8.2% Odds 12.18 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket12.7%8.2%
88%+ Probability 7.2% Odds 13.93 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket11.1%7.2%

Fresh — Odds updated: — Methodology

Odds over time

The price over time, one line per outcome.

Odds over time100%50%0%9 Sep15 Sep47%<82%84-86%86-88%88%+
<82% — — 22.1%
OutcomeObservedProbability
<82%22.1%
88%+7.2%
86-88%8.2%
84-86%15.6%
82-84%46.9%
<82%18.9%
88%+7.5%
86-88%8.6%
84-86%16.5%
82-84%48.5%
<82%20.1%
88%+7.5%
86-88%7.2%
84-86%16.6%
82-84%48.6%
<82%19.9%
88%+7.2%
86-88%10.2%
84-86%15.9%
82-84%46.8%
<82%20.5%
88%+7.1%
86-88%10.6%
84-86%15.8%
82-84%46.0%
<82%16.9%
88%+7.9%
86-88%6.7%
84-86%17.2%
82-84%51.3%
<82%16.0%
88%+7.5%
86-88%11.8%
84-86%16.3%
82-84%48.5%
<82%17.8%
88%+8.3%
86-88%1.7%
84-86%18.2%
82-84%54.0%
<82%17.0%
88%+8.0%
86-88%6.0%
84-86%17.4%
82-84%51.7%
<82%16.3%
88%+7.6%
86-88%9.9%
84-86%16.6%
82-84%49.5%
<82%16.0%
88%+7.5%
86-88%11.5%
84-86%16.3%
82-84%48.7%
<82%16.5%
88%+7.7%
86-88%8.8%
84-86%16.8%
82-84%50.1%
<82%16.2%
88%+7.6%
86-88%10.3%
84-86%16.6%
82-84%49.3%
<82%17.8%
88%+8.3%
86-88%1.9%
84-86%18.1%
82-84%53.9%
<82%16.8%
88%+7.9%
86-88%7.1%
84-86%17.1%
82-84%51.1%
<82%16.4%
88%+7.6%
86-88%9.7%
84-86%16.7%
82-84%49.6%
<82%16.5%
88%+7.5%
86-88%10.5%
84-86%16.6%
82-84%48.9%
<82%16.7%
88%+7.5%
86-88%11.7%
84-86%15.6%
82-84%48.6%
<82%17.4%
88%+7.8%
86-88%8.0%
84-86%16.0%
82-84%50.8%
<82%16.7%
88%+7.5%
86-88%12.1%
84-86%15.3%
82-84%48.5%
<82%18.8%
88%+8.0%
86-88%1.1%
84-86%17.2%
82-84%54.8%
<82%18.7%
88%+8.2%
86-88%1.8%
84-86%17.2%
82-84%54.1%
<82%18.8%
88%+2.3%
86-88%7.8%
84-86%17.2%
82-84%53.9%
<82%18.8%
88%+8.0%
86-88%0.9%
84-86%17.8%
82-84%54.6%
<82%18.8%
88%+8.3%
86-88%1.0%
84-86%17.4%
82-84%54.4%
<82%19.0%
88%+7.3%
86-88%1.2%
84-86%17.6%
82-84%54.9%
<82%18.6%
88%+8.2%
86-88%2.2%
84-86%17.2%
82-84%53.8%
<82%17.0%
88%+6.5%
86-88%12.1%
84-86%15.7%
82-84%48.7%
<82%18.9%
88%+8.1%
86-88%0.9%
84-86%17.7%
82-84%54.4%
<82%19.4%
88%+4.3%
86-88%1.1%
84-86%18.7%
82-84%56.5%
<82%15.5%
88%+8.1%
86-88%1.7%
84-86%18.7%
82-84%56.0%
<82%15.0%
88%+6.6%
86-88%6.8%
84-86%17.6%
82-84%54.0%
<82%15.8%
88%+8.3%
86-88%0.8%
84-86%18.6%
82-84%56.5%
<82%15.5%
88%+8.1%
86-88%1.0%
84-86%19.0%
82-84%56.4%
<82%17.0%
88%+3.9%
86-88%1.5%
84-86%18.8%
82-84%58.9%
<82%15.9%
88%+5.5%
86-88%4.7%
84-86%17.8%
82-84%56.0%
<82%14.7%
88%+7.6%
86-88%11.6%
84-86%15.9%
82-84%50.2%
<82%17.0%
88%+4.5%
86-88%1.0%
84-86%18.7%
82-84%58.8%
<82%15.4%
88%+7.6%
86-88%1.1%
84-86%18.9%
82-84%56.9%
<82%16.7%
88%+5.4%
86-88%1.7%
84-86%18.2%
82-84%58.1%
<82%14.7%
88%+4.8%
86-88%8.6%
84-86%17.0%
82-84%54.9%
<82%14.5%
88%+6.4%
86-88%10.9%
84-86%16.3%
82-84%51.9%
<82%17.5%
88%+1.3%
86-88%1.2%
84-86%19.2%
82-84%60.8%
<82%17.2%
88%+1.0%
86-88%2.1%
84-86%19.2%
82-84%60.4%
<82%15.6%
88%+1.9%
86-88%8.8%
84-86%17.8%
82-84%55.9%
<82%15.8%
88%+1.1%
86-88%10.7%
84-86%17.3%
82-84%55.1%
<82%16.9%
88%+1.4%
86-88%1.1%
84-86%19.2%
82-84%61.4%
<82%17.6%
88%+0.9%
86-88%1.3%
84-86%19.1%
82-84%61.2%
<82%16.5%
88%+2.0%
86-88%1.9%
84-86%19.1%
82-84%60.5%
<82%16.3%
88%+1.8%
86-88%5.8%
84-86%18.3%
82-84%57.9%
<82%14.6%
88%+1.8%
86-88%11.1%
84-86%17.4%
82-84%55.0%
<82%16.8%
88%+1.6%
86-88%1.1%
84-86%19.3%
82-84%61.2%
<82%17.5%
88%+0.9%
86-88%1.2%
84-86%19.8%
82-84%60.6%
<82%16.3%
88%+1.7%
86-88%1.8%
84-86%18.8%
82-84%61.4%
<82%15.5%
88%+1.5%
86-88%9.3%
84-86%17.7%
82-84%55.9%
<82%17.5%
88%+1.8%
86-88%0.9%
84-86%19.3%
82-84%60.6%
<82%16.8%
88%+1.1%
86-88%1.1%
84-86%19.5%
82-84%61.5%
<82%17.4%
88%+1.3%
86-88%1.2%
84-86%19.3%
82-84%60.8%
<82%16.5%
88%+1.1%
86-88%1.5%
84-86%19.5%
82-84%61.4%
<82%16.6%
88%+1.3%
86-88%2.8%
84-86%19.6%
82-84%59.7%
<82%14.9%
88%+1.9%
86-88%8.4%
84-86%17.7%
82-84%57.1%
<82%17.0%
88%+2.0%
86-88%0.9%
84-86%18.9%
82-84%61.2%
<82%17.1%
88%+1.5%
86-88%1.1%
84-86%18.7%
82-84%61.6%
<82%17.6%
88%+1.5%
86-88%1.3%
84-86%18.6%
82-84%61.1%
<82%16.5%
88%+1.2%
86-88%1.6%
84-86%19.0%
82-84%61.8%
<82%16.4%
88%+1.8%
86-88%3.2%
84-86%18.5%
82-84%60.1%
<82%14.9%
88%+1.3%
86-88%11.3%
84-86%17.1%
82-84%55.4%
<82%17.1%
88%+1.1%
86-88%1.0%
84-86%19.3%
82-84%61.5%
<82%16.7%
88%+2.1%
86-88%1.1%
84-86%19.3%
82-84%60.7%
<82%16.3%
88%+1.3%
86-88%1.2%
84-86%19.4%
82-84%61.7%
<82%16.8%
88%+1.2%
86-88%2.1%
84-86%18.9%
82-84%61.0%
<82%15.2%
88%+1.1%
86-88%7.3%
84-86%18.1%
82-84%58.2%
<82%16.6%
88%+2.1%
86-88%0.9%
84-86%19.3%
82-84%61.1%
<82%17.1%
88%+2.0%
86-88%1.0%
84-86%18.9%
82-84%60.9%
<82%15.8%
88%+1.9%
86-88%1.2%
84-86%19.6%
82-84%61.5%
<82%17.1%
88%+2.0%
86-88%1.4%
84-86%19.0%
82-84%60.5%
<82%16.2%
88%+1.2%
86-88%6.6%
84-86%18.4%
82-84%57.6%
<82%15.4%
88%+1.1%
86-88%11.0%
84-86%17.4%
82-84%55.1%
<82%17.0%
88%+1.6%
86-88%0.9%
84-86%19.3%
82-84%61.2%
<82%17.1%
88%+6.3%
86-88%1.1%
84-86%20.0%
82-84%55.6%
<82%3.5%
88%+2.4%
86-88%1.4%
84-86%3.7%
82-84%89.0%
<82%3.1%
88%+2.4%
86-88%2.1%
84-86%3.2%
82-84%89.3%
<82%3.9%
88%+6.9%
86-88%1.0%
84-86%9.0%
82-84%79.2%
<82%4.4%
88%+6.9%
86-88%1.3%
84-86%23.3%
82-84%64.0%
<82%3.1%
88%+2.0%
86-88%1.4%
84-86%3.6%
82-84%89.9%
<82%9.4%
88%+5.2%
86-88%3.0%
84-86%10.0%
82-84%72.4%
<82%15.8%
88%+4.8%
86-88%10.6%
84-86%15.5%
82-84%53.4%
<82%32.8%
88%+5.0%
86-88%2.6%
84-86%19.1%
82-84%40.5%
<82%31.2%
88%+4.6%
86-88%9.6%
84-86%19.2%
82-84%35.5%
<82%31.2%
88%+4.6%
86-88%9.9%
84-86%19.2%
82-84%35.1%
<82%31.0%
88%+4.5%
86-88%9.8%
84-86%19.1%
82-84%35.6%
<82%30.8%
88%+4.5%
86-88%10.4%
84-86%18.9%
82-84%35.3%
<82%31.8%
88%+4.7%
86-88%7.0%
84-86%19.2%
82-84%37.2%
<82%32.0%
88%+4.7%
86-88%6.3%
84-86%19.9%
82-84%37.1%
<82%32.4%
88%+4.7%
86-88%6.3%
84-86%19.7%
82-84%36.9%
<82%17.8%
88%+5.4%
86-88%11.0%
84-86%22.8%
82-84%42.9%
<82%18.0%
88%+5.5%
86-88%11.1%
84-86%23.0%
82-84%42.5%
<82%17.8%
88%+5.4%
86-88%11.8%
84-86%22.8%
82-84%42.2%
<82%17.7%
88%+5.4%
86-88%12.1%
84-86%22.7%
82-84%42.0%
<82%17.7%
88%+5.4%
86-88%12.5%
84-86%22.7%
82-84%41.8%
<82%17.8%
88%+5.4%
86-88%11.9%
84-86%22.8%
82-84%42.1%
<82%17.8%
88%+5.4%
86-88%11.8%
84-86%22.8%
82-84%42.2%
<82%18.3%
88%+5.5%
86-88%12.0%
84-86%21.1%
82-84%43.1%
<82%18.2%
88%+5.5%
86-88%12.0%
84-86%21.2%
82-84%43.0%
<82%18.4%
88%+5.5%
86-88%12.0%
84-86%21.2%
82-84%42.9%
<82%18.7%
88%+5.5%
86-88%11.9%
84-86%21.3%
82-84%42.6%
<82%19.0%
88%+5.4%
86-88%11.8%
84-86%21.4%
82-84%42.3%
<82%17.4%
88%+4.7%
86-88%9.7%
84-86%19.6%
82-84%48.7%
<82%17.0%
88%+4.6%
86-88%9.6%
84-86%19.2%
82-84%49.7%
<82%16.9%
88%+4.5%
86-88%10.2%
84-86%19.0%
82-84%49.4%
<82%16.9%
88%+4.5%
86-88%10.4%
84-86%18.9%
82-84%49.2%
<82%18.5%
88%+4.8%
86-88%4.1%
84-86%20.1%
82-84%52.5%
<82%17.8%
88%+4.5%
86-88%9.4%
84-86%18.9%
82-84%49.4%
<82%18.8%
88%+4.4%
86-88%10.0%
84-86%18.7%
82-84%48.2%
<82%25.4%
88%+4.5%
86-88%10.5%
84-86%19.1%
82-84%40.5%
<82%25.8%
88%+4.6%
86-88%10.6%
84-86%19.4%
82-84%39.6%
<82%26.0%
88%+4.6%
86-88%10.3%
84-86%19.4%
82-84%39.7%
<82%26.0%
88%+4.6%
86-88%10.5%
84-86%19.3%
82-84%39.5%
<82%26.3%
88%+4.6%
86-88%10.3%
84-86%19.3%
82-84%39.5%
<82%24.9%
88%+7.7%
86-88%12.2%
84-86%18.2%
82-84%37.0%
<82%25.0%
88%+7.6%
86-88%12.2%
84-86%18.2%
82-84%36.9%
<82%25.2%
88%+7.6%
86-88%12.2%
84-86%18.2%
82-84%36.8%
<82%25.3%
88%+7.6%
86-88%12.0%
84-86%18.2%
82-84%36.8%
<82%25.3%
88%+7.6%
86-88%12.7%
84-86%18.0%
82-84%36.5%
<82%25.4%
88%+7.6%
86-88%12.6%
84-86%18.0%
82-84%36.5%
<82%25.5%
88%+7.5%
86-88%12.6%
84-86%18.0%
82-84%36.4%
<82%25.6%
88%+7.5%
86-88%12.8%
84-86%17.9%
82-84%36.2%
<82%25.7%
88%+7.4%
86-88%12.5%
84-86%17.7%
82-84%36.7%
<82%26.3%
88%+7.3%
86-88%12.4%
84-86%17.5%
82-84%36.4%
<82%24.5%
88%+7.5%
86-88%12.6%
84-86%17.8%
82-84%37.6%
<82%3.2%
88%+9.8%
86-88%16.6%
84-86%23.4%
82-84%46.9%
<82%4.2%
88%+9.7%
86-88%16.6%
84-86%23.3%
82-84%46.2%
<82%4.0%
88%+9.3%
86-88%15.5%
84-86%22.2%
82-84%49.0%
<82%4.2%
88%+9.7%
86-88%15.3%
84-86%23.1%
82-84%47.6%
<82%4.2%
88%+9.7%
86-88%16.1%
84-86%23.1%
82-84%47.0%
<82%4.0%
88%+9.7%
86-88%15.5%
84-86%22.1%
82-84%48.8%
<82%4.1%
88%+10.0%
86-88%15.8%
84-86%22.9%
82-84%47.1%
<82%4.1%
88%+10.0%
86-88%16.1%
84-86%22.8%
82-84%47.0%
<82%4.3%
88%+9.9%
86-88%15.6%
84-86%22.7%
82-84%47.5%
<82%4.8%
88%+9.8%
86-88%15.9%
84-86%22.3%
82-84%47.2%
<82%5.3%
88%+10.0%
86-88%16.0%
84-86%22.8%
82-84%45.8%
<82%5.8%
88%+9.8%
86-88%15.8%
84-86%22.4%
82-84%46.2%
<82%6.3%
88%+9.5%
86-88%15.1%
84-86%21.7%
82-84%47.4%
<82%7.0%
88%+9.7%
86-88%15.8%
84-86%22.1%
82-84%45.4%
<82%7.6%
88%+9.6%
86-88%15.5%
84-86%22.0%
82-84%45.3%
<82%7.9%
88%+9.3%
86-88%15.1%
84-86%21.3%
82-84%46.5%
<82%8.6%
88%+8.2%
86-88%15.0%
84-86%21.4%
82-84%46.8%
<82%9.2%
88%+9.6%
86-88%14.5%
84-86%21.9%
82-84%44.7%
<82%9.4%
88%+8.1%
86-88%15.0%
84-86%21.2%
82-84%46.3%
<82%10.0%
88%+8.6%
86-88%14.3%
84-86%21.4%
82-84%45.7%
<82%10.1%
88%+9.2%
86-88%14.9%
84-86%21.0%
82-84%44.8%
<82%10.4%
88%+8.8%
86-88%14.6%
84-86%20.9%
82-84%45.3%
<82%10.6%
88%+9.0%
86-88%14.6%
84-86%20.6%
82-84%45.3%
<82%11.6%
88%+9.0%
86-88%16.1%
84-86%20.1%
82-84%43.3%
<82%12.8%
88%+8.8%
86-88%13.8%
84-86%21.1%
82-84%43.5%
<82%22.8%
88%+7.6%
86-88%14.4%
84-86%19.1%
82-84%36.1%
<82%29.0%
88%+8.7%
86-88%14.4%
84-86%13.4%
82-84%34.5%
<82%26.4%
88%+9.9%
86-88%21.0%
84-86%6.3%
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82-84%16.1%
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88%+7.8%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%51.6%
82-84%16.1%
<82%1.0%
88%+7.8%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%51.6%
82-84%16.1%
<82%1.0%
88%+7.8%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%51.6%
82-84%16.1%
<82%1.0%
88%+7.8%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%51.6%
82-84%16.1%
<82%1.0%
88%+7.8%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%51.6%
82-84%16.1%
<82%1.0%
88%+7.8%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%51.6%
82-84%16.1%
<82%1.0%
88%+7.8%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%51.6%
82-84%16.1%
<82%1.0%
88%+7.8%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%51.6%
82-84%16.1%
<82%1.0%
88%+7.8%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%51.6%
82-84%16.1%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.3%
84-86%53.5%
82-84%13.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.3%
84-86%53.5%
82-84%13.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.3%
84-86%53.5%
82-84%13.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.3%
84-86%53.5%
82-84%13.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.3%
84-86%53.5%
82-84%13.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.3%
84-86%53.5%
82-84%13.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.6%
86-88%24.2%
84-86%53.2%
82-84%12.9%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.6%
86-88%24.3%
84-86%53.5%
82-84%12.4%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.6%
86-88%24.3%
84-86%53.5%
82-84%12.4%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.3%
84-86%53.5%
82-84%13.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.2%
84-86%53.2%
82-84%13.4%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.5%
86-88%23.9%
84-86%52.7%
82-84%13.8%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.0%
86-88%24.1%
84-86%52.9%
82-84%13.9%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.2%
84-86%52.7%
82-84%14.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.2%
84-86%52.7%
82-84%14.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.2%
84-86%52.7%
82-84%14.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.2%
84-86%52.7%
82-84%14.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.2%
84-86%52.7%
82-84%14.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.2%
84-86%52.7%
82-84%14.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.2%
84-86%52.7%
82-84%14.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.2%
84-86%52.7%
82-84%14.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.1%
86-88%24.2%
84-86%52.7%
82-84%14.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+8.0%
86-88%23.9%
84-86%52.1%
82-84%14.9%
<82%1.1%
88%+7.9%
86-88%23.8%
84-86%51.9%
82-84%15.3%
<82%1.1%
88%+7.5%
86-88%24.1%
84-86%52.4%
82-84%15.0%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.5%
86-88%24.7%
84-86%52.7%
82-84%15.1%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.5%
86-88%24.9%
84-86%52.4%
82-84%15.1%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.5%
86-88%24.5%
84-86%52.2%
82-84%15.8%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.5%
86-88%24.3%
84-86%52.4%
82-84%15.7%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.5%
86-88%24.3%
84-86%52.4%
82-84%15.7%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.5%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%53.3%
82-84%15.8%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.5%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%53.3%
82-84%15.8%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.6%
86-88%23.5%
84-86%53.6%
82-84%15.3%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.6%
86-88%23.5%
84-86%53.6%
82-84%15.3%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.5%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%53.3%
82-84%15.8%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.5%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%53.3%
82-84%15.8%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.5%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%53.3%
82-84%15.8%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.5%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%53.3%
82-84%15.8%
<82%1.3%
88%+6.5%
86-88%23.3%
84-86%53.1%
82-84%15.7%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.5%
86-88%23.4%
84-86%53.3%
82-84%15.8%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.5%
86-88%23.2%
84-86%53.0%
82-84%16.2%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.5%
86-88%23.2%
84-86%54.1%
82-84%15.1%
<82%1.1%
88%+6.6%
86-88%23.8%
84-86%55.2%
82-84%13.3%

Other markets in this election

About the odds

How this question resolves

The market resolves according to the official voter turnout rate in the election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.

The result is compared against the brackets: <82%, 82-84%, 84-86%, 86-88% and 88%+.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket.

If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source is official information published by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, val.se).

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