CANDIDATECASINO General election 2026
Movers 24h 7-9% 83.6 ▲ 0.1 5-7% 11.6 - 0.0 <5% 4.7 ▲ 0.3 9%+ 0.1 ▼ 0.4
Featured market

Tidö majority in the 2026 general election

Yes 3.4No 96.7
Y Yes29.85 · 3.4%
N No1.03 · 96.7%

Centre Party's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election

Polymarket puts the probability at 83.6% for this bracket as of 15 September 2026.

Last updated:

Leading outcome
83.6%
7-9% ▲ 0.1 in 24h

Odds

Outcome Probability Odds Spread Spread (pts)
7-9% Probability 83.6% Odds 1.20 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket86.5%83.6%
5-7% Probability 11.6% Odds 8.62 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket12.0%11.6%
<5% Probability 4.7% Odds 21.34 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket4.9%4.7%
9%+ Probability 0.1% Odds 690.00 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.1%

Fresh — Odds updated: — Methodology

Odds over time

The price over time, one line per outcome.

Odds over time100%50%0%10 Sep15 Sep84%5-7%<5%9%+
<5% — — 4.7%
OutcomeObservedProbability
<5%4.7%
9%+0.1%
7-9%83.6%
5-7%11.6%
<5%4.7%
9%+0.1%
7-9%83.6%
5-7%11.6%
<5%4.3%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.1%
5-7%11.5%
<5%4.7%
9%+0.1%
7-9%83.7%
5-7%11.5%
<5%4.4%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.0%
5-7%11.5%
<5%4.0%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.3%
5-7%11.6%
<5%3.0%
9%+0.1%
7-9%85.2%
5-7%11.7%
<5%2.4%
9%+0.1%
7-9%85.7%
5-7%11.7%
<5%3.6%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.7%
5-7%11.6%
<5%3.4%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.9%
5-7%11.6%
<5%3.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%85.0%
5-7%11.8%
<5%3.9%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.6%
5-7%11.3%
<5%3.9%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.6%
5-7%11.3%
<5%4.4%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.4%
5-7%11.1%
<5%4.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%83.7%
5-7%12.0%
<5%4.4%
9%+0.1%
7-9%83.5%
5-7%11.9%
<5%3.5%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.3%
5-7%12.0%
<5%3.9%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.0%
5-7%12.0%
<5%3.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.5%
5-7%12.1%
<5%3.7%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.2%
5-7%12.0%
<5%3.6%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.6%
5-7%11.7%
<5%4.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%85.4%
5-7%10.2%
<5%3.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%85.9%
5-7%10.9%
<5%4.4%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.0%
5-7%11.5%
<5%3.6%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.7%
5-7%11.6%
<5%3.5%
9%+0.1%
7-9%85.6%
5-7%10.8%
<5%3.3%
9%+0.1%
7-9%85.3%
5-7%11.3%
<5%2.8%
9%+0.1%
7-9%85.7%
5-7%11.4%
<5%3.3%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.9%
5-7%11.6%
<5%3.6%
9%+0.1%
7-9%85.5%
5-7%10.7%
<5%4.0%
9%+0.1%
7-9%83.9%
5-7%12.0%
<5%4.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.1%
5-7%11.5%
<5%3.3%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.5%
5-7%12.1%
<5%3.8%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.1%
5-7%11.9%
<5%3.7%
9%+0.1%
7-9%83.7%
5-7%12.4%
<5%3.7%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.7%
5-7%11.5%
<5%3.4%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.8%
5-7%11.6%
<5%3.7%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.4%
5-7%11.7%
<5%2.6%
9%+0.1%
7-9%85.9%
5-7%11.4%
<5%4.8%
9%+0.1%
7-9%83.8%
5-7%11.2%
<5%4.7%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.7%
5-7%10.5%
<5%3.7%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.7%
5-7%11.5%
<5%4.6%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.3%
5-7%11.0%
<5%3.9%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.8%
5-7%11.1%
<5%3.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%85.0%
5-7%11.6%
<5%3.4%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.5%
5-7%12.0%
<5%3.3%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.6%
5-7%12.0%
<5%3.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.6%
5-7%12.0%
<5%3.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.5%
5-7%12.1%
<5%3.4%
9%+0.1%
7-9%85.2%
5-7%11.2%
<5%3.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.7%
5-7%12.0%
<5%3.0%
9%+0.1%
7-9%86.1%
5-7%10.8%
<5%3.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%86.7%
5-7%9.9%
<5%3.8%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.0%
5-7%12.1%
<5%4.4%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.4%
5-7%11.1%
<5%3.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.9%
5-7%11.8%
<5%3.5%
9%+0.2%
7-9%84.8%
5-7%11.5%
<5%4.8%
9%+0.1%
7-9%83.7%
5-7%11.4%
<5%4.4%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.0%
5-7%11.4%
<5%4.0%
9%+0.2%
7-9%83.6%
5-7%12.2%
<5%5.1%
9%+0.2%
7-9%82.6%
5-7%12.1%
<5%4.0%
9%+0.2%
7-9%83.7%
5-7%12.1%
<5%4.1%
9%+0.2%
7-9%83.2%
5-7%12.6%
<5%3.8%
9%+0.1%
7-9%84.2%
5-7%11.9%
<5%3.8%
9%+0.2%
7-9%83.8%
5-7%12.2%
<5%3.8%
9%+0.2%
7-9%83.8%
5-7%12.3%
<5%3.9%
9%+0.2%
7-9%83.6%
5-7%12.3%
<5%3.9%
9%+0.2%
7-9%85.8%
5-7%10.2%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.2%
7-9%84.8%
5-7%10.2%
<5%4.7%
9%+0.1%
7-9%85.3%
5-7%9.9%
<5%3.8%
9%+0.2%
7-9%85.5%
5-7%10.6%
<5%4.6%
9%+0.2%
7-9%85.2%
5-7%10.0%
<5%4.5%
9%+0.2%
7-9%84.6%
5-7%10.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.3%
7-9%84.1%
5-7%10.7%
<5%4.2%
9%+0.3%
7-9%87.3%
5-7%8.2%
<5%4.6%
9%+0.3%
7-9%85.9%
5-7%9.2%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.3%
7-9%84.5%
5-7%10.2%
<5%3.9%
9%+0.3%
7-9%85.6%
5-7%10.2%
<5%4.6%
9%+0.3%
7-9%84.8%
5-7%10.2%
<5%3.9%
9%+0.4%
7-9%85.4%
5-7%10.3%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.4%
7-9%84.4%
5-7%10.2%
<5%4.6%
9%+0.4%
7-9%84.7%
5-7%10.2%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.4%
7-9%84.5%
5-7%10.1%
<5%4.6%
9%+0.4%
7-9%84.7%
5-7%10.3%
<5%4.6%
9%+0.5%
7-9%84.7%
5-7%10.3%
<5%4.7%
9%+0.5%
7-9%84.5%
5-7%10.3%
<5%4.8%
9%+0.6%
7-9%84.4%
5-7%10.2%
<5%4.7%
9%+0.5%
7-9%84.1%
5-7%10.7%
<5%3.9%
9%+0.5%
7-9%84.8%
5-7%10.7%
<5%4.1%
9%+0.5%
7-9%83.5%
5-7%11.9%
<5%3.9%
9%+0.5%
7-9%83.2%
5-7%12.3%
<5%3.8%
9%+0.5%
7-9%83.5%
5-7%12.1%
<5%3.9%
9%+0.5%
7-9%83.9%
5-7%11.7%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.5%
7-9%83.0%
5-7%11.6%
<5%3.9%
9%+0.5%
7-9%83.8%
5-7%11.8%
<5%4.4%
9%+0.5%
7-9%83.5%
5-7%11.6%
<5%4.4%
9%+0.5%
7-9%83.5%
5-7%11.6%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.5%
7-9%83.1%
5-7%11.5%
<5%5.1%
9%+0.5%
7-9%82.2%
5-7%12.2%
<5%5.1%
9%+0.5%
7-9%82.2%
5-7%12.2%
<5%4.8%
9%+0.5%
7-9%76.5%
5-7%18.2%
<5%4.8%
9%+0.5%
7-9%77.0%
5-7%17.7%
<5%4.8%
9%+0.5%
7-9%77.1%
5-7%17.6%
<5%4.8%
9%+0.5%
7-9%77.0%
5-7%17.7%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.5%
7-9%75.3%
5-7%19.3%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.5%
7-9%75.0%
5-7%19.6%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.5%
7-9%75.1%
5-7%19.5%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%75.0%
5-7%19.5%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%75.0%
5-7%19.5%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%75.0%
5-7%19.5%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%75.0%
5-7%19.5%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%75.0%
5-7%19.5%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%75.0%
5-7%19.5%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%75.0%
5-7%19.5%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%75.0%
5-7%19.5%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%74.6%
5-7%19.9%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%74.6%
5-7%19.9%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%74.6%
5-7%19.9%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%74.6%
5-7%19.9%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%74.6%
5-7%19.9%
<5%4.8%
9%+0.6%
7-9%74.9%
5-7%19.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.8%
5-7%20.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.8%
5-7%20.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.8%
5-7%20.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.8%
5-7%20.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.8%
5-7%20.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.8%
5-7%20.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.8%
5-7%20.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.8%
5-7%20.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.8%
5-7%20.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.8%
5-7%20.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.8%
5-7%20.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.8%
5-7%20.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.8%
5-7%20.7%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.8%
5-7%20.7%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%72.7%
5-7%21.8%
<5%5.0%
9%+0.6%
7-9%72.8%
5-7%21.6%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%72.7%
5-7%21.8%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%72.4%
5-7%22.0%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%72.7%
5-7%21.8%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%72.6%
5-7%21.9%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%72.6%
5-7%21.9%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%72.6%
5-7%21.9%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%72.9%
5-7%21.5%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%72.6%
5-7%21.9%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%72.7%
5-7%21.8%
<5%4.6%
9%+0.6%
7-9%80.8%
5-7%14.0%
<5%4.9%
9%+0.6%
7-9%80.2%
5-7%14.4%
<5%4.6%
9%+0.6%
7-9%80.6%
5-7%14.2%
<5%9.1%
9%+0.6%
7-9%76.5%
5-7%13.8%
<5%7.7%
9%+0.6%
7-9%80.5%
5-7%11.2%
<5%4.8%
9%+0.6%
7-9%80.3%
5-7%14.3%
<5%10.1%
9%+0.6%
7-9%75.9%
5-7%13.5%
<5%0.4%
9%+0.6%
7-9%83.3%
5-7%15.7%
<5%0.4%
9%+0.6%
7-9%83.3%
5-7%15.7%
<5%0.4%
9%+0.6%
7-9%73.4%
5-7%25.7%
<5%0.4%
9%+0.6%
7-9%72.5%
5-7%26.5%
<5%0.4%
9%+0.7%
7-9%81.8%
5-7%17.2%
<5%0.4%
9%+0.7%
7-9%82.0%
5-7%17.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+0.7%
7-9%82.0%
5-7%17.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+2.2%
7-9%80.8%
5-7%16.6%
<5%0.3%
9%+1.4%
7-9%82.2%
5-7%16.1%
<5%0.3%
9%+3.5%
7-9%89.0%
5-7%7.2%
<5%0.3%
9%+4.2%
7-9%88.2%
5-7%7.3%
<5%0.4%
9%+5.2%
7-9%80.4%
5-7%14.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+10.1%
7-9%69.4%
5-7%20.1%
<5%0.5%
9%+12.4%
7-9%62.5%
5-7%24.6%
<5%0.5%
9%+14.5%
7-9%62.1%
5-7%22.9%
<5%0.5%
9%+14.9%
7-9%61.6%
5-7%23.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+12.1%
7-9%70.4%
5-7%17.1%
<5%0.4%
9%+12.1%
7-9%70.4%
5-7%17.1%
<5%0.4%
9%+12.7%
7-9%72.1%
5-7%14.8%
<5%0.4%
9%+12.2%
7-9%73.0%
5-7%14.4%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.8%
7-9%71.5%
5-7%14.4%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.6%
7-9%71.8%
5-7%14.2%
<5%0.4%
9%+14.0%
7-9%61.4%
5-7%24.2%
<5%0.4%
9%+14.7%
7-9%59.5%
5-7%25.4%
<5%0.4%
9%+14.0%
7-9%60.0%
5-7%25.6%
<5%0.4%
9%+14.0%
7-9%60.0%
5-7%25.6%
<5%0.4%
9%+14.1%
7-9%59.8%
5-7%25.6%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.8%
7-9%60.1%
5-7%25.7%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.9%
7-9%59.8%
5-7%25.8%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.1%
7-9%64.2%
5-7%22.3%
<5%0.4%
9%+14.1%
7-9%62.5%
5-7%23.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+14.1%
7-9%62.5%
5-7%23.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+14.1%
7-9%62.5%
5-7%23.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.6%
7-9%63.3%
5-7%22.7%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.9%
7-9%62.8%
5-7%22.9%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.4%
7-9%63.1%
5-7%23.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.3%
7-9%63.2%
5-7%23.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.3%
7-9%63.2%
5-7%23.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.3%
7-9%63.2%
5-7%23.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.3%
7-9%63.2%
5-7%23.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.3%
7-9%63.2%
5-7%23.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.5%
7-9%63.1%
5-7%23.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.5%
7-9%63.1%
5-7%23.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.5%
7-9%63.1%
5-7%23.0%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.8%
7-9%62.9%
5-7%22.9%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.9%
7-9%62.8%
5-7%22.9%
<5%0.4%
9%+13.9%
7-9%62.8%
5-7%22.9%
<5%0.4%
9%+14.4%
7-9%62.4%
5-7%22.8%
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<5%4.3%
9%+13.0%
7-9%63.8%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.3%
9%+12.9%
7-9%63.7%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.3%
9%+12.9%
7-9%63.8%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.4%
9%+12.8%
7-9%63.7%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.4%
9%+12.9%
7-9%63.8%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.4%
9%+12.9%
7-9%63.8%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.5%
9%+12.8%
7-9%63.8%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.5%
9%+12.8%
7-9%63.8%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.5%
9%+12.7%
7-9%63.7%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.5%
9%+12.7%
7-9%63.7%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.7%
9%+12.6%
7-9%63.7%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.5%
9%+12.8%
7-9%63.8%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.5%
9%+12.6%
7-9%63.8%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.6%
9%+12.6%
7-9%63.8%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.6%
9%+12.6%
7-9%63.8%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.6%
9%+12.7%
7-9%63.7%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.9%
9%+12.5%
7-9%63.7%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.9%
9%+12.5%
7-9%63.7%
5-7%19.0%
<5%4.6%
9%+12.5%
7-9%63.9%
5-7%19.0%
<5%5.4%
9%+12.6%
7-9%62.8%
5-7%19.1%
<5%5.2%
9%+12.5%
7-9%62.7%
5-7%19.6%
<5%4.6%
9%+12.6%
7-9%63.1%
5-7%19.7%
<5%4.5%
9%+12.5%
7-9%63.3%
5-7%19.8%
<5%4.5%
9%+12.4%
7-9%62.9%
5-7%20.2%
<5%4.3%
9%+12.4%
7-9%63.1%
5-7%20.2%
<5%4.5%
9%+12.3%
7-9%63.0%
5-7%20.2%
<5%4.5%
9%+12.2%
7-9%63.1%
5-7%20.2%
<5%4.2%
9%+12.3%
7-9%63.3%
5-7%20.3%
<5%4.1%
9%+12.4%
7-9%63.2%
5-7%20.2%
<5%4.5%
9%+12.2%
7-9%63.1%
5-7%20.2%
<5%4.5%
9%+11.9%
7-9%63.3%
5-7%20.3%
<5%4.1%
9%+12.0%
7-9%63.5%
5-7%20.3%
<5%4.5%
9%+11.9%
7-9%63.3%
5-7%20.3%
<5%4.6%
9%+11.3%
7-9%63.7%
5-7%20.4%
<5%4.3%
9%+11.3%
7-9%63.9%
5-7%20.5%
<5%4.5%
9%+11.4%
7-9%63.7%
5-7%20.4%
<5%4.8%
9%+11.1%
7-9%63.7%
5-7%20.4%
<5%4.8%
9%+11.4%
7-9%63.5%
5-7%20.3%
<5%4.7%
9%+11.3%
7-9%63.6%
5-7%20.4%
<5%4.6%
9%+10.2%
7-9%64.5%
5-7%20.7%
<5%4.7%
9%+10.2%
7-9%64.4%
5-7%20.6%
<5%4.8%
9%+11.6%
7-9%63.4%
5-7%20.3%
<5%4.0%
9%+10.7%
7-9%64.6%
5-7%20.7%
<5%4.2%
9%+10.1%
7-9%64.9%
5-7%20.8%
<5%4.0%
9%+9.9%
7-9%65.2%
5-7%20.9%
<5%4.7%
9%+8.6%
7-9%65.6%
5-7%21.0%
<5%4.7%
9%+8.6%
7-9%65.7%
5-7%21.0%
<5%4.6%
9%+8.4%
7-9%65.5%
5-7%21.5%
<5%4.7%
9%+9.2%
7-9%64.8%
5-7%21.3%
<5%4.6%
9%+8.8%
7-9%64.9%
5-7%21.8%
<5%4.0%
9%+9.3%
7-9%64.9%
5-7%21.8%
<5%4.6%
9%+9.0%
7-9%65.1%
5-7%21.4%
<5%4.6%
9%+9.0%
7-9%64.6%
5-7%21.7%
<5%4.7%
9%+8.4%
7-9%65.1%
5-7%21.9%
<5%4.7%
9%+8.4%
7-9%65.0%
5-7%21.8%
<5%4.1%
9%+8.8%
7-9%65.2%
5-7%21.9%
<5%4.5%
9%+8.6%
7-9%65.0%
5-7%21.8%
<5%4.3%
9%+11.0%
7-9%63.4%
5-7%21.3%
<5%3.9%
9%+11.2%
7-9%63.6%
5-7%21.4%
<5%4.3%
9%+9.1%
7-9%64.8%
5-7%21.8%
<5%4.7%
9%+7.1%
7-9%66.0%
5-7%22.2%
<5%4.7%
9%+7.1%
7-9%66.0%
5-7%22.2%
<5%4.4%
9%+6.7%
7-9%66.6%
5-7%22.4%
<5%4.5%
9%+6.7%
7-9%66.5%
5-7%22.3%

Other markets in this election

About the odds

How this question resolves

The market settles on the percentage of valid votes the Centre Party (C) receives in the 13 September 2026 Riksdag election, defined as the party's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket.

Only vote percentages the Swedish Election Authority attributes to the Centre Party count. Percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations do not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.

If the Centre Party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the successor party's vote percentage counts toward resolution.

If the election results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket.

The market settles based on a consensus of credible reporting on the results. If there is ambiguity, it settles solely on the official results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, val.se).

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