CANDIDATECASINO General election 2026
Movers 24h 16-18% 98.5 ▼ 0.9 18-20% 0.8 ▲ 0.5 20%+ 0.7 ▲ 0.6 <16% 0.0 ▼ 0.2
Featured market

Tidö majority in the 2026 general election

Yes 3.4No 96.7
Y Yes29.85 · 3.4%
N No1.03 · 96.7%

SD's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election

Polymarket prices SD's vote share in the Riksdag election at 98.5% as of 15 September 2026.

Last updated:

Leading outcome
98.5%
16-18% ▼ 0.9 in 24h

Odds

Outcome Probability Odds Spread Spread (pts)
16-18% Probability 98.5% Odds 1.02 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket99.2%98.5%
18-20% Probability 0.8% Odds 125.94 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.8%0.8%
20%+ Probability 0.7% Odds 143.93 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.7%0.7%
<16% Probability 0.0% Odds 2015.00 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.0%

Fresh — Odds updated: — Methodology

Odds over time

The price over time, one line per outcome.

Odds over time100%50%0%10 Sep15 Sep98%18-20%20%+<16%
<16% — — 0.0%
OutcomeObservedProbability
<16%0.0%
20%+0.7%
18-20%0.8%
16-18%98.5%
<16%0.0%
20%+0.7%
18-20%0.8%
16-18%98.5%
<16%0.0%
20%+0.6%
18-20%0.8%
16-18%98.5%
<16%0.0%
20%+0.6%
18-20%0.8%
16-18%98.5%
<16%0.0%
20%+0.6%
18-20%0.8%
16-18%98.5%
<16%0.0%
20%+0.6%
18-20%0.8%
16-18%98.6%
<16%0.0%
20%+0.6%
18-20%0.8%
16-18%98.6%
<16%0.0%
20%+0.6%
18-20%0.8%
16-18%98.6%
<16%0.0%
20%+0.6%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.2%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.7%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.2%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.5%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%0.3%
16-18%99.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%2.4%
16-18%97.5%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%2.3%
16-18%97.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%2.3%
16-18%97.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%2.3%
16-18%97.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%2.3%
16-18%97.6%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%2.2%
16-18%97.7%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%3.5%
16-18%96.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%3.7%
16-18%96.2%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%3.5%
16-18%96.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%3.7%
16-18%96.2%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%3.6%
16-18%96.3%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%3.5%
16-18%96.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%3.6%
16-18%96.3%
<16%0.1%
20%+0.1%
18-20%3.8%
16-18%96.1%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%3.6%
16-18%96.2%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%3.6%
16-18%96.1%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%3.6%
16-18%96.2%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%3.7%
16-18%96.1%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.0%
18-20%3.6%
16-18%96.2%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.0%
18-20%4.1%
16-18%95.7%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.0%
18-20%4.1%
16-18%95.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.0%
18-20%4.1%
16-18%95.6%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.0%
18-20%4.4%
16-18%95.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.0%
18-20%4.4%
16-18%95.4%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.0%
18-20%4.5%
16-18%95.2%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.0%
18-20%4.5%
16-18%95.2%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.1%
18-20%4.5%
16-18%95.3%
<16%0.2%
20%+0.0%
18-20%4.3%
16-18%95.4%
<16%0.5%
20%+0.0%
18-20%4.2%
16-18%95.2%
<16%0.5%
20%+0.2%
18-20%4.1%
16-18%95.1%
<16%0.5%
20%+0.5%
18-20%3.5%
16-18%95.4%
<16%0.5%
20%+0.6%
18-20%3.6%
16-18%95.2%
<16%0.5%
20%+0.6%
18-20%3.5%
16-18%95.3%
<16%0.6%
20%+0.5%
18-20%3.6%
16-18%95.3%
<16%0.5%
20%+0.6%
18-20%4.5%
16-18%94.4%
<16%0.8%
20%+0.6%
18-20%5.4%
16-18%93.1%
<16%1.5%
20%+1.4%
18-20%7.3%
16-18%89.8%
<16%3.8%
20%+0.8%
18-20%5.8%
16-18%89.6%
<16%4.9%
20%+0.8%
18-20%4.4%
16-18%89.9%
<16%3.5%
20%+0.9%
18-20%8.0%
16-18%87.6%
<16%3.4%
20%+2.0%
18-20%20.9%
16-18%73.7%
<16%3.4%
20%+6.2%
18-20%36.2%
16-18%54.3%
<16%3.0%
20%+9.6%
18-20%38.4%
16-18%49.0%
<16%1.0%
20%+8.9%
18-20%39.2%
16-18%50.9%
<16%1.9%
20%+10.8%
18-20%30.2%
16-18%57.0%
<16%1.6%
20%+8.5%
18-20%29.8%
16-18%60.1%
<16%0.8%
20%+57.6%
18-20%31.6%
16-18%9.9%
<16%1.5%
20%+50.5%
18-20%34.3%
16-18%13.7%
<16%1.6%
20%+42.2%
18-20%40.8%
16-18%15.4%
<16%1.4%
20%+44.3%
18-20%38.5%
16-18%15.9%
<16%1.9%
20%+44.2%
18-20%38.5%
16-18%15.4%
<16%1.9%
20%+44.3%
18-20%38.5%
16-18%15.4%
<16%1.9%
20%+44.3%
18-20%38.5%
16-18%15.4%
<16%1.9%
20%+37.6%
18-20%44.9%
16-18%15.6%
<16%2.8%
20%+36.3%
18-20%44.7%
16-18%16.2%
<16%2.7%
20%+36.8%
18-20%44.5%
16-18%16.0%
<16%2.7%
20%+37.1%
18-20%44.0%
16-18%16.1%
<16%2.7%
20%+37.1%
18-20%44.0%
16-18%16.1%
<16%2.7%
20%+37.1%
18-20%44.0%
16-18%16.1%
<16%2.7%
20%+37.9%
18-20%43.3%
16-18%16.1%
<16%2.7%
20%+37.1%
18-20%44.0%
16-18%16.1%
<16%2.7%
20%+37.1%
18-20%44.0%
16-18%16.1%
<16%2.8%
20%+37.3%
18-20%43.7%
16-18%16.2%
<16%2.8%
20%+37.3%
18-20%43.7%
16-18%16.2%
<16%2.8%
20%+37.3%
18-20%43.7%
16-18%16.2%
<16%2.8%
20%+37.3%
18-20%43.7%
16-18%16.2%
<16%3.2%
20%+37.0%
18-20%43.3%
16-18%16.5%
<16%3.9%
20%+36.4%
18-20%43.2%
16-18%16.5%
<16%4.5%
20%+36.4%
18-20%42.7%
16-18%16.5%
<16%4.4%
20%+36.7%
18-20%42.5%
16-18%16.4%
<16%4.9%
20%+36.5%
18-20%42.3%
16-18%16.3%
<16%7.6%
20%+35.5%
18-20%41.1%
16-18%15.9%
<16%6.6%
20%+35.7%
18-20%41.8%
16-18%16.0%
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18-20%44.6%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.5%
18-20%44.6%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.5%
18-20%44.6%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.2%
18-20%44.9%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.2%
18-20%44.9%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.5%
18-20%44.6%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.5%
18-20%44.6%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.2%
18-20%44.9%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.2%
18-20%44.9%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.2%
18-20%44.9%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.2%
18-20%44.9%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.5%
18-20%44.6%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.5%
18-20%44.6%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.5%
18-20%44.6%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.5%
18-20%44.6%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.5%
18-20%44.6%
16-18%17.8%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.8%
18-20%44.4%
16-18%17.7%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.8%
18-20%44.4%
16-18%17.7%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.8%
18-20%44.4%
16-18%17.7%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.8%
18-20%44.4%
16-18%17.7%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.8%
18-20%44.4%
16-18%17.7%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.8%
18-20%44.4%
16-18%17.7%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.8%
18-20%44.4%
16-18%17.7%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.8%
18-20%44.4%
16-18%17.7%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.8%
18-20%44.4%
16-18%17.7%
<16%3.3%
20%+34.7%
18-20%44.3%
16-18%17.6%
<16%3.3%
20%+34.7%
18-20%44.3%
16-18%17.6%
<16%3.3%
20%+34.7%
18-20%44.3%
16-18%17.6%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.8%
18-20%44.4%
16-18%17.7%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.5%
18-20%45.0%
16-18%17.5%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.6%
18-20%44.7%
16-18%17.6%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.3%
18-20%44.9%
16-18%17.7%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.3%
18-20%44.9%
16-18%17.7%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.3%
18-20%45.2%
16-18%17.4%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.3%
18-20%45.2%
16-18%17.4%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.3%
18-20%45.2%
16-18%17.4%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.3%
18-20%45.2%
16-18%17.4%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.3%
18-20%45.2%
16-18%17.4%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.3%
18-20%45.2%
16-18%17.4%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.3%
18-20%45.2%
16-18%17.4%
<16%3.1%
20%+34.3%
18-20%45.2%
16-18%17.4%
<16%2.9%
20%+33.3%
18-20%46.9%
16-18%16.9%
<16%2.9%
20%+33.3%
18-20%46.9%
16-18%16.9%
<16%3.5%
20%+32.5%
18-20%47.0%
16-18%17.0%
<16%3.5%
20%+32.5%
18-20%47.0%
16-18%17.0%
<16%3.5%
20%+32.5%
18-20%47.0%
16-18%17.0%
<16%3.6%
20%+32.1%
18-20%47.2%
16-18%17.0%
<16%3.6%
20%+32.1%
18-20%47.2%
16-18%17.0%
<16%3.5%
20%+32.2%
18-20%47.3%
16-18%17.1%
<16%3.5%
20%+32.2%
18-20%47.3%
16-18%17.1%
<16%3.5%
20%+32.2%
18-20%47.3%
16-18%17.1%
<16%3.6%
20%+32.1%
18-20%47.2%
16-18%17.0%
<16%3.6%
20%+32.1%
18-20%47.2%
16-18%17.0%
<16%3.5%
20%+32.2%
18-20%47.3%
16-18%17.1%
<16%3.5%
20%+32.2%
18-20%47.3%
16-18%17.1%
<16%3.5%
20%+32.2%
18-20%47.3%
16-18%17.1%
<16%3.6%
20%+32.1%
18-20%47.2%
16-18%17.0%
<16%3.6%
20%+32.1%
18-20%47.2%
16-18%17.0%
<16%3.6%
20%+32.1%
18-20%47.2%
16-18%17.0%
<16%3.2%
20%+32.3%
18-20%47.4%
16-18%17.1%
<16%3.2%
20%+32.3%
18-20%47.4%
16-18%17.1%
<16%3.3%
20%+32.1%
18-20%47.2%
16-18%17.5%
<16%3.3%
20%+32.1%
18-20%47.2%
16-18%17.5%
<16%3.3%
20%+32.1%
18-20%47.2%
16-18%17.5%

Other markets in this election

About the odds

How this question resolves

The market resolves according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Sweden Democrats (SD) in the 2026 Riksdag election, defined as the number of valid votes won by the party divided by the total number of valid votes in the election.

Only vote percentages the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) attributes to SD count. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations do not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.

If SD formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the successor party's valid vote percentage will count towards resolution instead.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket.

The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves solely based on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (val.se).

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