Analysis

Explanations of what the odds and polls on candidatecasino.com actually show, and how we calculate them — newest posts first.

Last updated: 2026-08-25 00:00 UTC

Analysis

Prime-minister odds fall to 77.6% - a new low

2 September 2026

Why prediction markets can be used to predict real-world outcomes

How odds turn into probability: implied probability, overround and de-vigging

The Social Democrats and the largest-party market's de-vig