CANDIDATECASINO General election 2026
Movers 24h 5-7% 99.3 ▼ 0.1 7-9% 0.5 ▲ 0.1 <5% 0.2 ▲ 0.1 9%+ 0.1 - 0.0

MP's Vote Share in the 2026 General Election

Polymarket puts this bracket of the Green Party's vote share in the general election at 99.3%, as of 15 September 2026.

Last updated:

Leading outcome
99.3%
5-7% ▼ 0.1 in 24h

Odds

Outcome Probability Odds Spread Spread (pts)
5-7% Probability 99.3% Odds 1.01 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket98.3%99.3%
7-9% Probability 0.5% Odds 219.89 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.4%0.5%
<5% Probability 0.2% Odds 659.67 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.2%
9%+ Probability 0.1% Odds 1979.00 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.1%

Fresh — Odds updated: Methodology

Odds over time

The price over time, one line per outcome.

Odds over time100%50%0%10 Sep15 Sep99%7-9%<5%9%+
<5% — — 0.2%
OutcomeObservedProbability
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.2%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.4%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.4%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.4%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.4%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.4%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.4%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.4%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.4%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.4%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.4%
5-7%99.4%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%0.5%
5-7%99.3%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%1.2%
5-7%98.7%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.0%
7-9%3.0%
5-7%96.9%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.0%
7-9%2.0%
5-7%97.8%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.0%
7-9%2.3%
5-7%97.6%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.0%
7-9%2.2%
5-7%97.7%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.1%
7-9%1.9%
5-7%97.9%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.0%
7-9%2.1%
5-7%97.8%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.0%
7-9%2.1%
5-7%97.8%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.0%
7-9%2.2%
5-7%97.6%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.0%
7-9%2.0%
5-7%97.9%
<5%0.1%
9%+0.0%
7-9%2.0%
5-7%97.9%
<5%1.8%
9%+1.7%
7-9%1.9%
5-7%94.5%
<5%1.2%
9%+1.7%
7-9%1.8%
5-7%95.4%
<5%1.8%
9%+1.7%
7-9%1.9%
5-7%94.5%
<5%1.0%
9%+1.7%
7-9%1.9%
5-7%95.4%
<5%0.9%
9%+1.7%
7-9%1.8%
5-7%95.6%
<5%1.9%
9%+1.6%
7-9%1.9%
5-7%94.6%
<5%1.4%
9%+1.7%
7-9%1.8%
5-7%95.2%
<5%1.0%
9%+1.7%
7-9%1.9%
5-7%95.4%
<5%1.3%
9%+1.7%
7-9%1.8%
5-7%95.2%
<5%1.0%
9%+1.7%
7-9%1.9%
5-7%95.4%
<5%1.5%
9%+1.7%
7-9%2.0%
5-7%94.7%
<5%1.8%
9%+1.7%
7-9%2.1%
5-7%94.5%
<5%3.9%
9%+1.7%
7-9%4.2%
5-7%90.2%
<5%3.4%
9%+1.7%
7-9%5.7%
5-7%89.2%
<5%1.0%
9%+1.8%
7-9%4.6%
5-7%92.6%
<5%1.0%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.2%
5-7%94.1%
<5%3.7%
9%+1.7%
7-9%3.3%
5-7%91.3%
<5%3.0%
9%+1.7%
7-9%3.4%
5-7%91.9%
<5%2.2%
9%+1.7%
7-9%4.0%
5-7%92.1%
<5%1.0%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.6%
5-7%93.7%
<5%3.2%
9%+1.7%
7-9%3.6%
5-7%91.5%
<5%1.9%
9%+1.7%
7-9%3.3%
5-7%93.0%
<5%1.8%
9%+1.7%
7-9%3.6%
5-7%92.9%
<5%3.3%
9%+1.7%
7-9%3.4%
5-7%91.5%
<5%2.4%
9%+1.7%
7-9%3.4%
5-7%92.5%
<5%4.7%
9%+1.7%
7-9%3.3%
5-7%90.3%
<5%3.3%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.3%
5-7%91.6%
<5%2.9%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.4%
5-7%91.9%
<5%0.9%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.5%
5-7%93.8%
<5%3.4%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.8%
5-7%91.1%
<5%2.6%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.4%
5-7%92.2%
<5%2.0%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.5%
5-7%92.7%
<5%2.5%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.5%
5-7%92.2%
<5%3.1%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.4%
5-7%91.7%
<5%2.7%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.3%
5-7%92.2%
<5%0.7%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.5%
5-7%94.0%
<5%1.7%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.3%
5-7%93.1%
<5%2.9%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.3%
5-7%92.0%
<5%0.5%
9%+0.3%
7-9%0.6%
5-7%98.6%
<5%2.2%
9%+1.7%
7-9%4.4%
5-7%91.7%
<5%0.8%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.6%
5-7%93.8%
<5%0.6%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.6%
5-7%94.0%
<5%0.9%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.5%
5-7%93.8%
<5%0.6%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.5%
5-7%94.0%
<5%0.9%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.6%
5-7%93.7%
<5%0.6%
9%+1.8%
7-9%2.5%
5-7%95.0%
<5%0.9%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.7%
5-7%93.5%
<5%0.7%
9%+1.8%
7-9%3.7%
5-7%93.7%
<5%1.4%
9%+2.5%
7-9%2.5%
5-7%93.5%
<5%0.6%
9%+2.6%
7-9%2.6%
5-7%94.3%
<5%0.9%
9%+2.6%
7-9%2.6%
5-7%93.9%
<5%2.7%
9%+1.6%
7-9%3.5%
5-7%92.2%
<5%3.9%
9%+1.6%
7-9%3.9%
5-7%90.6%
<5%5.4%
9%+2.9%
7-9%27.6%
5-7%64.1%
<5%5.5%
9%+2.9%
7-9%28.4%
5-7%63.3%
<5%2.7%
9%+2.3%
7-9%23.5%
5-7%71.4%
<5%6.0%
9%+3.1%
7-9%47.7%
5-7%43.1%
<5%6.1%
9%+3.2%
7-9%49.2%
5-7%41.5%
<5%6.1%
9%+3.2%
7-9%52.3%
5-7%38.3%
<5%10.3%
9%+3.1%
7-9%50.0%
5-7%36.6%
<5%10.3%
9%+3.1%
7-9%49.2%
5-7%37.4%
<5%10.7%
9%+4.1%
7-9%49.0%
5-7%36.2%
<5%4.7%
9%+7.6%
7-9%27.8%
5-7%59.8%
<5%4.7%
9%+7.6%
7-9%27.8%
5-7%59.8%
<5%4.9%
9%+7.8%
7-9%26.7%
5-7%60.7%
<5%3.8%
9%+7.7%
7-9%28.4%
5-7%60.1%
<5%3.8%
9%+7.7%
7-9%28.4%
5-7%60.1%
<5%3.5%
9%+7.7%
7-9%28.5%
5-7%60.3%
<5%5.4%
9%+7.5%
7-9%29.0%
5-7%58.1%
<5%7.3%
9%+7.4%
7-9%27.5%
5-7%57.8%
<5%8.2%
9%+7.4%
7-9%28.0%
5-7%56.4%
<5%5.1%
9%+7.5%
7-9%30.8%
5-7%56.5%
<5%3.5%
9%+7.6%
7-9%33.1%
5-7%55.8%
<5%3.7%
9%+8.0%
7-9%34.1%
5-7%54.2%
<5%4.0%
9%+10.0%
7-9%27.9%
5-7%58.0%
<5%4.0%
9%+10.0%
7-9%27.9%
5-7%58.0%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.1%
7-9%28.0%
5-7%58.1%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.1%
7-9%28.0%
5-7%58.1%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.1%
7-9%28.0%
5-7%58.1%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.1%
7-9%28.0%
5-7%58.1%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.1%
7-9%28.0%
5-7%58.1%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.4%
7-9%27.9%
5-7%57.8%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.4%
7-9%27.9%
5-7%57.8%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.4%
7-9%27.9%
5-7%57.8%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.4%
7-9%27.9%
5-7%57.8%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.4%
7-9%27.9%
5-7%57.8%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.4%
7-9%27.9%
5-7%57.8%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.4%
7-9%27.9%
5-7%57.8%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.4%
7-9%27.9%
5-7%57.8%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.4%
7-9%27.9%
5-7%57.8%
<5%3.9%
9%+10.4%
7-9%27.9%
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9%+16.9%
7-9%47.6%
5-7%34.8%
<5%0.7%
9%+16.8%
7-9%47.6%
5-7%34.9%
<5%0.9%
9%+16.8%
7-9%47.5%
5-7%34.8%
<5%1.3%
9%+16.4%
7-9%47.5%
5-7%34.9%
<5%1.1%
9%+16.5%
7-9%47.5%
5-7%34.9%
<5%0.9%
9%+16.4%
7-9%47.7%
5-7%35.0%
<5%1.3%
9%+16.4%
7-9%47.5%
5-7%34.9%
<5%1.0%
9%+16.3%
7-9%47.6%
5-7%35.0%
<5%0.8%
9%+16.4%
7-9%47.8%
5-7%35.1%
<5%1.3%
9%+16.3%
7-9%47.5%
5-7%34.9%
<5%1.1%
9%+16.3%
7-9%47.6%
5-7%35.0%
<5%0.9%
9%+16.3%
7-9%47.7%
5-7%35.1%
<5%0.9%
9%+16.2%
7-9%47.8%
5-7%35.1%
<5%1.5%
9%+16.1%
7-9%47.5%
5-7%34.9%
<5%1.5%
9%+16.1%
7-9%47.5%
5-7%34.9%
<5%1.5%
9%+16.0%
7-9%47.6%
5-7%35.0%
<5%1.5%
9%+15.9%
7-9%47.6%
5-7%35.0%
<5%1.5%
9%+15.9%
7-9%47.6%
5-7%35.0%
<5%1.4%
9%+15.8%
7-9%47.7%
5-7%35.1%
<5%2.0%
9%+15.7%
7-9%47.4%
5-7%34.8%
<5%2.0%
9%+15.7%
7-9%47.4%
5-7%34.8%
<5%2.4%
9%+15.6%
7-9%47.3%
5-7%34.7%
<5%2.1%
9%+15.5%
7-9%47.5%
5-7%34.9%
<5%2.2%
9%+15.4%
7-9%47.5%
5-7%34.9%
<5%2.2%
9%+13.9%
7-9%48.1%
5-7%35.8%
<5%2.6%
9%+13.9%
7-9%47.9%
5-7%35.6%
<5%3.2%
9%+13.8%
7-9%47.5%
5-7%35.4%
<5%2.9%
9%+14.3%
7-9%47.5%
5-7%35.4%
<5%2.2%
9%+13.7%
7-9%48.2%
5-7%35.9%
<5%2.5%
9%+13.9%
7-9%47.9%
5-7%35.7%
<5%2.4%
9%+13.5%
7-9%48.2%
5-7%35.9%
<5%2.6%
9%+14.4%
7-9%47.6%
5-7%35.4%
<5%1.8%
9%+14.5%
7-9%48.0%
5-7%35.7%
<5%1.8%
9%+14.2%
7-9%48.2%
5-7%35.9%
<5%1.8%
9%+14.2%
7-9%47.9%
5-7%36.1%
<5%1.9%
9%+14.0%
7-9%48.0%
5-7%36.2%
<5%1.9%
9%+13.8%
7-9%48.1%
5-7%36.3%
<5%3.1%
9%+13.6%
7-9%47.5%
5-7%35.9%
<5%1.9%
9%+13.3%
7-9%48.3%
5-7%36.5%
<5%1.7%
9%+13.2%
7-9%48.4%
5-7%36.6%
<5%1.9%
9%+14.2%
7-9%47.8%
5-7%36.1%
<5%2.2%
9%+14.1%
7-9%47.7%
5-7%36.0%
<5%2.4%
9%+14.0%
7-9%47.6%
5-7%36.0%
<5%2.5%
9%+13.7%
7-9%47.8%
5-7%36.1%
<5%2.9%
9%+13.3%
7-9%47.7%
5-7%36.0%
<5%1.9%
9%+14.1%
7-9%47.9%
5-7%36.2%
<5%2.1%
9%+11.4%
7-9%49.3%
5-7%37.2%
<5%2.0%
9%+11.5%
7-9%49.3%
5-7%37.2%
<5%2.0%
9%+11.4%
7-9%49.3%
5-7%37.3%
<5%2.6%
9%+11.5%
7-9%48.9%
5-7%36.9%
<5%3.7%
9%+11.2%
7-9%48.5%
5-7%36.6%
<5%2.4%
9%+11.4%
7-9%49.1%
5-7%37.1%
<5%2.9%
9%+11.3%
7-9%48.9%
5-7%36.9%
<5%2.9%
9%+11.4%
7-9%48.9%
5-7%36.9%
<5%2.4%
9%+11.6%
7-9%49.0%
5-7%37.0%
<5%2.2%
9%+11.6%
7-9%49.1%
5-7%37.1%
<5%2.1%
9%+11.6%
7-9%49.2%
5-7%37.1%
<5%2.6%
9%+11.4%
7-9%49.0%
5-7%37.0%
<5%2.0%
9%+11.5%
7-9%49.3%
5-7%37.2%
<5%2.0%
9%+12.6%
7-9%48.7%
5-7%36.8%
<5%1.7%
9%+12.6%
7-9%48.8%
5-7%36.9%
<5%1.7%
9%+12.5%
7-9%48.9%
5-7%36.9%

Other markets in this election

About the odds

How this question resolves

The market settles based on the percentage of valid votes the Green Party (MP) receives in the general election, defined as the number of valid votes for the party divided by the total number of valid votes in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket.

Only vote percentages that the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) attributes to the Green Party count. Percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations do not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.

If the Green Party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the successor party's vote percentage counts instead.

If the results of the election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket.

The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting, and where there is ambiguity, based solely on the official results from the Swedish Election Authority (val.se).

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