CANDIDATECASINO General election 2026
Movers 24h Under 99.5 - 0.0 Over 0.5 - 0.0

MP over/under 7% in the 2026 general election

Polymarket prices the probability that the Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of the vote at 99.5% as of 15 September 2026.

Last updated:

Leading outcome
99.5%
Under - 0.0 in 24h

Odds

Outcome Probability Odds Spread Spread (pts)
Under Probability 99.5% Odds 1.01 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket99.5%99.5%
Over Probability 0.5% Odds 181.82 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.5%0.5%

Fresh — Odds updated: Methodology

Odds over time

The price over time, one line per outcome.

Odds over time100%50%0%10 Sep15 Sep99%
Under — — 99.5%
OutcomeObservedProbability
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.5%
Over0.5%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.4%
Over0.6%
Under99.1%
Over0.9%
Under98.4%
Over1.6%
Under97.5%
Over2.5%
Under95.5%
Over4.5%
Under79.5%
Over20.5%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under65.5%
Over34.5%
Under59.5%
Over40.5%
Under58.5%
Over41.5%
Under58.5%
Over41.5%
Under58.5%
Over41.5%
Under58.5%
Over41.5%
Under58.5%
Over41.5%
Under58.5%
Over41.5%
Under58.5%
Over41.5%
Under58.5%
Over41.5%
Under58.5%
Over41.5%
Under58.5%
Over41.5%
Under58.5%
Over41.5%
Under58.5%
Over41.5%
Under58.5%
Over41.5%
Under58.0%
Over42.0%
Under58.0%
Over42.0%
Under57.5%
Over42.5%
Under57.0%
Over43.0%
Under57.5%
Over42.5%
Under51.5%
Over48.5%
Under51.5%
Over48.5%
Under51.5%
Over48.5%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under53.0%
Over47.0%
Under53.0%
Over47.0%
Under73.0%
Over27.0%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.5%
Over34.5%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under64.5%
Over35.5%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.5%
Over34.5%
Under65.5%
Over34.5%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under65.0%
Over35.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under65.5%
Over34.5%
Under66.5%
Over33.5%
Under66.5%
Over33.5%
Under66.5%
Over33.5%
Under66.5%
Over33.5%
Under67.0%
Over33.0%
Under67.0%
Over33.0%
Under67.0%
Over33.0%
Under67.0%
Over33.0%
Under67.0%
Over33.0%
Under67.0%
Over33.0%
Under67.0%
Over33.0%
Under67.0%
Over33.0%
Under67.0%
Over33.0%
Under67.0%
Over33.0%
Under67.0%
Over33.0%
Under67.0%
Over33.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.0%
Over34.0%
Under66.5%
Over33.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under67.5%
Over32.5%
Under59.5%
Over40.5%
Under61.5%
Over38.5%
Under61.5%
Over38.5%
Under61.5%
Over38.5%
Under60.5%
Over39.5%
Under61.0%
Over39.0%
Under61.0%
Over39.0%
Under61.0%
Over39.0%
Under61.0%
Over39.0%
Under61.0%
Over39.0%
Under61.0%
Over39.0%
Under61.0%
Over39.0%
Under61.0%
Over39.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under59.0%
Over41.0%
Under61.0%
Over39.0%
Under61.0%
Over39.0%
Under61.0%
Over39.0%
Under61.0%
Over39.0%
Under59.5%
Over40.5%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under60.5%
Over39.5%
Under61.5%
Over38.5%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under61.0%
Over39.0%
Under61.5%
Over38.5%
Under61.5%
Over38.5%
Under61.5%
Over38.5%
Under61.5%
Over38.5%
Under61.5%
Over38.5%
Under60.5%
Over39.5%
Under61.5%
Over38.5%
Under61.5%
Over38.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under34.5%
Over65.5%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under30.5%
Over69.5%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under30.5%
Over69.5%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%

Other markets in this election

About the odds

How this question resolves

The market settles on the share of valid votes the Green Party (MP) wins in the general election on 13 September 2026.

"Over" resolves if MP wins at least 7% of valid votes; "Under" resolves if the share is below 7%.

The vote share is calculated as the number of valid votes for MP divided by the total number of valid votes in the election.

Only votes the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) attributes to MP count. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations do not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.

If MP formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the successor party's vote share counts instead.

If the election result is not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves 50-50.

The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting of the result. Where there is ambiguity, it resolves based solely on the official results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, val.se).

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