CANDIDATECASINO General election 2026
Movers 24h Under 100.0 - 0.0 Over 0.1 ▲ 0.1

S over/under 31% in the 2026 general election

Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability that the Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of the vote in the general election, as of an observation from 15 September 2026.

Last updated:

Leading outcome
100.0%
Under - 0.0 in 24h

Odds

Outcome Probability Odds Spread Spread (pts)
Under Probability 100.0% Odds 1.00 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket100.0%100.0%
Over Probability 0.1% Odds 2000.00 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.1%

Fresh — Odds updated: Methodology

Odds over time

The price over time, one line per outcome.

Odds over time100%50%0%10 Sep15 Sep100%
Under — — 100.0%
OutcomeObservedProbability
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under96.7%
Over3.3%
Under96.6%
Over3.4%
Under96.7%
Over3.3%
Under96.4%
Over3.5%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under76.5%
Over23.5%
Under79.0%
Over21.0%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under77.0%
Over23.0%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under77.0%
Over23.0%
Under75.5%
Over24.5%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under76.0%
Over24.0%
Under63.5%
Over36.5%
Under63.5%
Over36.5%
Under62.0%
Over38.0%
Under59.5%
Over40.5%
Under61.0%
Over39.0%
Under60.5%
Over39.5%
Under60.5%
Over39.5%
Under60.5%
Over39.5%
Under60.0%
Over40.0%
Under60.5%
Over39.5%
Under60.5%
Over39.5%
Under60.5%
Over39.5%
Under60.5%
Over39.5%
Under57.0%
Over43.0%
Under57.0%
Over43.0%
Under57.0%
Over43.0%
Under54.5%
Over45.5%
Under54.5%
Over45.5%
Under54.5%
Over45.5%
Under54.5%
Over45.5%
Under53.5%
Over46.5%
Under53.5%
Over46.5%
Under53.5%
Over46.5%
Under51.5%
Over48.5%
Under56.0%
Over44.0%
Under56.0%
Over44.0%
Under56.5%
Over43.5%
Under58.0%
Over42.0%
Under56.5%
Over43.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under51.0%
Over49.0%
Under50.5%
Over49.5%
Under50.5%
Over49.5%
Under47.5%
Over52.5%
Under47.5%
Over52.5%
Under47.5%
Over52.5%
Under47.5%
Over52.5%
Under47.5%
Over52.5%
Under48.0%
Over52.0%
Under46.5%
Over53.5%
Under80.5%
Over19.5%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under81.0%
Over19.0%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under80.5%
Over19.5%
Under81.0%
Over19.0%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.0%
Over13.0%
Under87.0%
Over13.0%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under86.5%
Over13.5%
Under86.5%
Over13.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under86.5%
Over13.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under87.5%
Over12.5%
Under86.5%
Over13.5%
Under87.0%
Over13.0%
Under87.0%
Over13.0%
Under86.5%
Over13.5%
Under86.5%
Over13.5%
Under87.0%
Over13.0%
Under87.0%
Over13.0%
Under85.5%
Over14.5%
Under86.0%
Over14.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under81.0%
Over19.0%
Under81.0%
Over19.0%
Under80.0%
Over20.0%
Under80.0%
Over20.0%
Under80.0%
Over20.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under80.5%
Over19.5%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under83.0%
Over17.0%
Under83.0%
Over17.0%
Under83.0%
Over17.0%
Under83.0%
Over17.0%
Under83.5%
Over16.5%
Under81.0%
Over19.0%
Under83.0%
Over17.0%
Under83.5%
Over16.5%
Under83.5%
Over16.5%
Under83.5%
Over16.5%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under80.5%
Over19.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under80.0%
Over20.0%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under80.0%
Over20.0%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under80.0%
Over20.0%
Under83.0%
Over17.0%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under81.0%
Over19.0%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under83.0%
Over17.0%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under80.5%
Over19.5%
Under81.0%
Over19.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under80.5%
Over19.5%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under83.0%
Over17.0%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under80.0%
Over20.0%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under80.5%
Over19.5%
Under80.5%
Over19.5%
Under80.5%
Over19.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under79.5%
Over20.5%
Under80.5%
Over19.5%
Under80.5%
Over19.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under81.0%
Over19.0%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under81.0%
Over19.0%
Under84.0%
Over16.0%
Under81.0%
Over19.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under81.0%
Over19.0%
Under83.0%
Over17.0%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under81.0%
Over19.0%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under81.0%
Over19.0%
Under81.0%
Over19.0%
Under80.5%
Over19.5%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under79.5%
Over20.5%
Under80.0%
Over20.0%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%
Under80.0%
Over20.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.0%
Over18.0%
Under82.5%
Over17.5%
Under83.0%
Over17.0%
Under79.0%
Over21.0%
Under79.5%
Over20.5%
Under81.5%
Over18.5%

Other markets in this election

About the odds

How this question resolves

The market resolves "Over" if the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the election.

The market resolves "Under" if the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the election.

Resolution is based solely on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the party divided by the total number of valid votes in the election.

Only valid vote percentages that the Swedish Election Authority attributes to the specified party count. Percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations do not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.

If the party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the successor party's valid vote percentage counts towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves 50-50.

Resolution is based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on the official results reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

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