CANDIDATECASINO General election 2026
Movers 24h Under 100.0 - 0.0 Over 0.1 ▲ 0.1

SD Over or Under 19% in the 2026 Riksdag Election

Prediction market Polymarket priced the "Over" outcome at 100.0% on 15 September 2026, meaning SD wins at least 19% of the vote in the 13 September 2026 Riksdag election.

Last updated:

Leading outcome
100.0%
Under - 0.0 in 24h

Odds

Outcome Probability Odds Spread Spread (pts)
Under Probability 100.0% Odds 1.00 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket100.0%100.0%
Over Probability 0.1% Odds 2000.00 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.1%

Fresh — Odds updated: Methodology

Odds over time

The price over time, one line per outcome.

Odds over time100%50%0%10 Sep15 Sep100%
Under — — 100.0%
OutcomeObservedProbability
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under100.0%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.9%
Over0.1%
Under99.6%
Over0.4%
Under99.6%
Over0.4%
Under99.6%
Over0.4%
Under99.6%
Over0.4%
Under99.6%
Over0.4%
Under99.7%
Over0.4%
Under99.7%
Over0.4%
Under99.6%
Over0.4%
Under97.2%
Over2.8%
Under97.3%
Over2.7%
Under97.2%
Over2.8%
Under97.2%
Over2.8%
Under97.2%
Over2.9%
Under97.4%
Over2.6%
Under98.0%
Over2.0%
Under98.4%
Over1.7%
Under94.8%
Over5.1%
Under94.8%
Over5.1%
Under94.8%
Over5.2%
Under95.7%
Over4.3%
Under95.4%
Over4.6%
Under96.1%
Over3.9%
Under96.2%
Over3.8%
Under95.5%
Over4.4%
Under95.3%
Over4.7%
Under58.8%
Over41.2%
Under59.0%
Over41.0%
Under96.5%
Over3.5%
Under55.5%
Over44.5%
Under55.5%
Over44.5%
Under55.5%
Over44.5%
Under55.0%
Over45.0%
Under30.0%
Over70.0%
Under30.5%
Over69.5%
Under30.5%
Over69.5%
Under30.5%
Over69.5%
Under30.0%
Over70.0%
Under30.0%
Over70.0%
Under30.0%
Over70.0%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under41.5%
Over58.5%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.5%
Over57.5%
Under42.5%
Over57.5%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.5%
Over57.5%
Under42.5%
Over57.5%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.5%
Over57.5%
Under42.5%
Over57.5%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.5%
Over57.5%
Under42.5%
Over57.5%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.5%
Over57.5%
Under42.5%
Over57.5%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.5%
Over57.5%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.5%
Over57.5%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.5%
Over57.5%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.0%
Over58.0%
Under42.5%
Over57.5%
Under46.5%
Over53.5%
Under46.0%
Over54.0%
Under46.0%
Over54.0%
Under46.5%
Over53.5%
Under46.5%
Over53.5%
Under46.0%
Over54.0%
Under46.5%
Over53.5%
Under45.5%
Over54.5%
Under45.5%
Over54.5%
Under46.5%
Over53.5%
Under46.5%
Over53.5%
Under46.5%
Over53.5%
Under45.5%
Over54.5%
Under46.0%
Over54.0%
Under46.0%
Over54.0%
Under45.5%
Over54.5%
Under46.0%
Over54.0%
Under45.5%
Over54.5%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under52.0%
Over48.0%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under50.0%
Over50.0%
Under50.0%
Over50.0%
Under50.0%
Over50.0%
Under50.0%
Over50.0%
Under50.0%
Over50.0%
Under50.0%
Over50.0%
Under48.0%
Over52.0%
Under48.0%
Over52.0%
Under48.0%
Over52.0%
Under48.0%
Over52.0%
Under47.5%
Over52.5%
Under47.5%
Over52.5%
Under48.0%
Over52.0%
Under48.0%
Over52.0%
Under48.0%
Over52.0%
Under48.0%
Over52.0%
Under48.0%
Over52.0%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under40.5%
Over59.5%
Under40.5%
Over59.5%
Under40.5%
Over59.5%
Under41.0%
Over59.0%
Under41.0%
Over59.0%
Under41.5%
Over58.5%
Under41.5%
Over58.5%
Under40.5%
Over59.5%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under43.5%
Over56.5%
Under43.5%
Over56.5%
Under43.5%
Over56.5%
Under38.5%
Over61.5%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under39.0%
Over61.0%
Under40.5%
Over59.5%
Under40.5%
Over59.5%
Under41.0%
Over59.0%
Under41.0%
Over59.0%
Under41.0%
Over59.0%
Under41.0%
Over59.0%
Under41.0%
Over59.0%
Under41.0%
Over59.0%
Under40.5%
Over59.5%
Under44.5%
Over55.5%
Under44.5%
Over55.5%
Under44.5%
Over55.5%
Under45.5%
Over54.5%
Under45.5%
Over54.5%
Under46.0%
Over54.0%
Under46.0%
Over54.0%
Under47.0%
Over53.0%
Under47.5%
Over52.5%
Under54.0%
Over46.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under54.5%
Over45.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under47.5%
Over52.5%
Under47.5%
Over52.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under46.5%
Over53.5%
Under46.5%
Over53.5%
Under46.5%
Over53.5%
Under46.5%
Over53.5%
Under47.0%
Over53.0%
Under49.5%
Over50.5%
Under50.0%
Over50.0%
Under49.0%
Over51.0%
Under50.0%
Over50.0%
Under50.0%
Over50.0%
Under38.5%
Over61.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under37.7%
Over62.3%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under38.5%
Over61.5%
Under38.5%
Over61.5%
Under38.5%
Over61.5%
Under38.5%
Over61.5%
Under38.5%
Over61.5%
Under38.5%
Over61.5%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.5%
Over61.5%
Under52.5%
Over47.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.5%
Over63.5%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%

Other markets in this election

About the odds

How this question resolves

The market settles on the share of valid votes won by the Sweden Democrats (SD) in the 13 September 2026 Riksdag election.

It resolves "Over" if SD wins at least 19% of valid votes, and "Under" if SD wins less than 19%.

Only vote shares the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) attributes to SD count. Vote shares attributed to other parties or electoral designations do not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.

If SD formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the successor party's vote share counts instead.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market resolves 50-50.

The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. Where there is ambiguity, it resolves solely on the official results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, val.se).

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