CANDIDATECASINO General election 2026
Movers 24h Over 94.1 - 0.0 Under 5.9 - 0.0

KD Over/Under 6% in the 2026 Riksdag Election

Polymarket gives KD at least 6% of the vote a probability of 94.1% as of 15 September 2026.

Last updated:

Leading outcome
94.1%
Over - 0.0 in 24h

Odds

Outcome Probability Odds Spread Spread (pts)
Over Probability 94.1% Odds 1.06 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket94.1%94.1%
Under Probability 5.9% Odds 16.95 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket5.9%5.9%

Fresh — Odds updated: Methodology

Odds over time

The price over time, one line per outcome.

Odds over time100%50%0%10 Sep15 Sep94%
Under — — 5.9%
OutcomeObservedProbability
Under5.9%
Over94.1%
Under6.0%
Over94.0%
Under6.3%
Over93.7%
Under6.6%
Over93.5%
Under6.4%
Over93.6%
Under6.3%
Over93.7%
Under6.4%
Over93.6%
Under6.5%
Over93.5%
Under6.3%
Over93.7%
Under6.6%
Over93.5%
Under5.9%
Over94.0%
Under6.1%
Over93.9%
Under6.1%
Over93.9%
Under5.7%
Over94.4%
Under5.7%
Over94.4%
Under5.8%
Over94.2%
Under5.7%
Over94.4%
Under5.5%
Over94.5%
Under5.6%
Over94.4%
Under6.0%
Over94.0%
Under5.8%
Over94.2%
Under5.7%
Over94.4%
Under5.6%
Over94.4%
Under6.3%
Over93.7%
Under6.2%
Over93.8%
Under6.1%
Over93.9%
Under5.7%
Over94.3%
Under5.9%
Over94.0%
Under5.8%
Over94.2%
Under5.5%
Over94.5%
Under5.9%
Over94.1%
Under5.9%
Over94.2%
Under5.8%
Over94.2%
Under6.1%
Over93.9%
Under6.2%
Over93.8%
Under6.3%
Over93.7%
Under6.2%
Over93.8%
Under6.2%
Over93.8%
Under6.0%
Over94.0%
Under6.2%
Over93.8%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.8%
Over96.2%
Under3.8%
Over96.3%
Under3.8%
Over96.2%
Under3.7%
Over96.3%
Under3.8%
Over96.2%
Under3.5%
Over96.5%
Under3.5%
Over96.5%
Under3.8%
Over96.2%
Under3.8%
Over96.2%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.2%
Over96.8%
Under3.5%
Over96.5%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.8%
Over96.3%
Under3.5%
Over96.5%
Under3.8%
Over96.3%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.7%
Over96.3%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.8%
Over96.2%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.5%
Over96.5%
Under3.8%
Over96.3%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.5%
Over96.5%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.7%
Over96.3%
Under3.7%
Over96.3%
Under3.8%
Over96.3%
Under3.5%
Over96.5%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.8%
Over96.3%
Under3.7%
Over96.3%
Under3.5%
Over96.5%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.5%
Over96.4%
Under3.5%
Over96.5%
Under3.8%
Over96.3%
Under3.5%
Over96.5%
Under3.7%
Over96.3%
Under3.8%
Over96.2%
Under3.5%
Over96.5%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under3.6%
Over96.4%
Under5.9%
Over94.2%
Under5.9%
Over94.0%
Under5.9%
Over94.0%
Under6.4%
Over93.6%
Under6.6%
Over93.5%
Under6.0%
Over94.0%
Under6.3%
Over93.7%
Under5.9%
Over94.1%
Under5.9%
Over94.1%
Under6.0%
Over94.0%
Under5.9%
Over94.0%
Under5.9%
Over94.0%
Under5.9%
Over94.0%
Under5.9%
Over94.2%
Under5.9%
Over94.2%
Under5.9%
Over94.2%
Under6.5%
Over93.5%
Under6.5%
Over93.5%
Under6.5%
Over93.5%
Under6.5%
Over93.5%
Under6.5%
Over93.5%
Under8.2%
Over91.8%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.2%
Over91.8%
Under8.2%
Over91.8%
Under8.2%
Over91.8%
Under8.2%
Over91.8%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.2%
Over91.8%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under7.8%
Over92.2%
Under8.0%
Over92.0%
Under8.2%
Over91.8%
Under5.5%
Over94.5%
Under7.5%
Over92.5%
Under11.0%
Over89.0%
Under11.5%
Over88.5%
Under11.0%
Over89.0%
Under11.0%
Over89.0%
Under10.0%
Over90.0%
Under10.0%
Over90.0%
Under10.0%
Over90.0%
Under10.0%
Over90.0%
Under10.0%
Over90.0%
Under10.0%
Over90.0%
Under10.0%
Over90.0%
Under24.5%
Over75.5%
Under27.0%
Over73.0%
Under27.0%
Over73.0%
Under27.0%
Over73.0%
Under24.5%
Over75.5%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under31.0%
Over69.0%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under28.5%
Over71.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under29.5%
Over70.5%
Under30.0%
Over70.0%
Under30.0%
Over70.0%
Under30.0%
Over70.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under30.0%
Over70.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under29.0%
Over71.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under28.0%
Over72.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.5%
Over63.5%
Under36.5%
Over63.5%
Under36.5%
Over63.5%
Under36.5%
Over63.5%
Under36.5%
Over63.5%
Under36.5%
Over63.5%
Under36.5%
Over63.5%
Under36.5%
Over63.5%
Under36.5%
Over63.5%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under36.0%
Over64.0%
Under37.0%
Over63.0%
Under37.0%
Over63.0%
Under37.0%
Over63.0%
Under37.0%
Over63.0%
Under37.0%
Over63.0%
Under37.0%
Over63.0%
Under37.0%
Over63.0%
Under37.0%
Over63.0%
Under37.0%
Over63.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under37.5%
Over62.5%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%

Other markets in this election

About the odds

How this question resolves

The market resolves on the share of valid votes the Christian Democrats (KD) win in the Riksdag election on 13 September 2026.

The market resolves "Over" if KD wins at least 6% of the valid votes, and "Under" if KD wins less than 6%.

The share is calculated as the number of valid votes for KD divided by the total number of valid votes in the election.

Only vote shares that the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) attributes to KD count. Vote shares attributed to other parties or electoral designations do not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.

If KD formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the successor party's vote share counts instead.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves 50-50.

The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves solely on the official results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, val.se).

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