CANDIDATECASINO General election 2026
Movers 24h 18-20% 93.3 ▼ 1.0 20%+ 6.6 ▲ 1.0 <16% 0.0 - 0.0 16-18% 0.0 - 0.0
Featured market

Tidö majority in the 2026 general election

Yes 3.4No 96.7
Y Yes29.85 · 3.4%
N No1.03 · 96.7%

M's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election

Polymarket currently gives 93.3% probability to this bracket, as of 15 September 2026.

Last updated:

Leading outcome
93.3%
18-20% ▼ 1.0 in 24h

Odds

Outcome Probability Odds Spread Spread (pts)
18-20% Probability 93.3% Odds 1.07 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket93.5%93.3%
20%+ Probability 6.6% Odds 15.08 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket6.7%6.6%
<16% Probability 0.0% Odds 2005.00 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.0%
16-18% Probability 0.0% Odds 2005.00 Spread — Spread (pts) — ▾
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.1%0.0%

Fresh — Odds updated: — Methodology

Odds over time

The price over time, one line per outcome.

Odds over time100%50%0%10 Sep15 Sep93%20%+<16%16-18%
<16% — — 0.0%
OutcomeObservedProbability
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.8%
18-20%93.1%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.6%
18-20%93.3%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.7%
18-20%93.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.4%
18-20%93.5%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.5%
18-20%93.4%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.5%
18-20%93.4%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.5%
18-20%93.4%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.0%
20%+7.4%
18-20%92.5%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+7.5%
18-20%92.4%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+7.7%
18-20%92.2%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+7.7%
18-20%92.2%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+7.6%
18-20%92.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+7.6%
18-20%92.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+7.6%
18-20%92.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.1%
20%+7.9%
18-20%92.0%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.0%
20%+8.8%
18-20%91.1%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+8.5%
18-20%91.4%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+8.4%
18-20%91.5%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+8.5%
18-20%91.4%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+8.2%
18-20%91.7%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.1%
20%+8.2%
18-20%91.7%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+8.2%
18-20%91.7%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+8.3%
18-20%91.6%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.0%
20%+9.1%
18-20%90.8%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+7.4%
18-20%92.5%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.1%
20%+6.2%
18-20%93.7%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.0%
20%+6.1%
18-20%93.8%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.7%
18-20%94.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.3%
18-20%94.6%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.0%
20%+5.6%
18-20%94.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+5.5%
18-20%94.4%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+5.5%
18-20%94.4%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+5.5%
18-20%94.4%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.0%
20%+5.6%
18-20%94.3%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.3%
18-20%94.6%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.3%
18-20%94.6%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.3%
18-20%94.6%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.4%
18-20%94.5%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.6%
18-20%94.3%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.4%
18-20%94.5%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.4%
18-20%94.5%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.8%
18-20%94.1%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.4%
18-20%94.5%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.0%
20%+7.4%
18-20%92.5%
16-18%0.0%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.7%
18-20%94.2%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+4.9%
18-20%95.0%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.5%
18-20%94.4%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.1%
18-20%94.8%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.1%
18-20%94.8%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.1%
18-20%94.8%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.1%
18-20%94.8%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.1%
18-20%94.8%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.1%
18-20%94.8%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.1%
18-20%94.8%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.4%
18-20%94.5%
16-18%0.1%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.2%
18-20%94.4%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.2%
18-20%94.4%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.0%
18-20%94.5%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.1%
18-20%94.5%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.0%
18-20%94.6%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.4%
18-20%94.1%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.0%
18-20%94.6%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.0%
18-20%94.6%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+4.8%
18-20%94.8%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+4.8%
18-20%94.7%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.6%
18-20%94.0%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+4.9%
18-20%94.7%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+4.7%
18-20%94.8%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.2%
18-20%94.3%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+4.8%
18-20%94.8%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.0%
18-20%94.5%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.4%
18-20%94.1%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.1%
18-20%94.4%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.1%
18-20%94.4%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+4.8%
18-20%94.8%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.1%
18-20%94.4%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.1%
20%+4.8%
18-20%94.6%
16-18%0.5%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.1%
18-20%94.3%
16-18%0.5%
<16%0.1%
20%+5.3%
18-20%94.1%
16-18%0.6%
<16%0.3%
20%+5.5%
18-20%93.8%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.3%
20%+5.4%
18-20%93.9%
16-18%0.5%
<16%0.3%
20%+5.4%
18-20%93.9%
16-18%0.5%
<16%0.3%
20%+5.0%
18-20%94.3%
16-18%0.5%
<16%0.3%
20%+4.7%
18-20%94.6%
16-18%0.5%
<16%0.3%
20%+5.0%
18-20%94.3%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.3%
20%+5.1%
18-20%94.1%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.3%
20%+5.1%
18-20%94.2%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.3%
20%+6.2%
18-20%93.0%
16-18%0.5%
<16%0.3%
20%+7.7%
18-20%91.5%
16-18%0.5%
<16%0.3%
20%+7.7%
18-20%91.6%
16-18%0.5%
<16%0.3%
20%+7.7%
18-20%91.5%
16-18%0.5%
<16%0.3%
20%+7.2%
18-20%92.0%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.3%
20%+8.9%
18-20%90.3%
16-18%0.5%
<16%0.3%
20%+13.3%
18-20%85.9%
16-18%0.4%
<16%0.3%
20%+12.1%
18-20%87.0%
16-18%0.5%
<16%0.3%
20%+8.5%
18-20%90.1%
16-18%1.0%
<16%0.3%
20%+36.4%
18-20%62.4%
16-18%0.9%
<16%0.3%
20%+10.8%
18-20%87.8%
16-18%1.0%
<16%0.3%
20%+11.7%
18-20%87.0%
16-18%1.0%
<16%0.3%
20%+20.5%
18-20%78.2%
16-18%1.0%
<16%0.4%
20%+19.6%
18-20%79.1%
16-18%1.0%
<16%0.3%
20%+24.7%
18-20%74.0%
16-18%1.0%
<16%0.3%
20%+56.3%
18-20%42.4%
16-18%1.0%
<16%0.3%
20%+57.2%
18-20%41.4%
16-18%1.0%
<16%0.3%
20%+47.3%
18-20%51.3%
16-18%1.0%
<16%0.6%
20%+28.9%
18-20%65.0%
16-18%5.5%
<16%6.0%
20%+19.2%
18-20%54.3%
16-18%20.5%
<16%1.9%
20%+4.5%
18-20%46.8%
16-18%46.8%
<16%2.4%
20%+4.6%
18-20%44.0%
16-18%49.0%
<16%2.8%
20%+4.9%
18-20%50.4%
16-18%41.9%
<16%3.0%
20%+6.4%
18-20%49.5%
16-18%41.1%
<16%6.4%
20%+7.2%
18-20%40.4%
16-18%46.0%
<16%16.8%
20%+6.3%
18-20%38.7%
16-18%38.2%
<16%16.7%
20%+6.9%
18-20%38.4%
16-18%37.9%
<16%16.8%
20%+6.6%
18-20%38.6%
16-18%38.1%
<16%16.7%
20%+6.7%
18-20%38.5%
16-18%38.0%
<16%16.7%
20%+7.0%
18-20%38.4%
16-18%37.9%
<16%16.6%
20%+7.2%
18-20%38.3%
16-18%37.8%
<16%15.9%
20%+7.7%
18-20%41.1%
16-18%35.3%
<16%16.0%
20%+8.4%
18-20%39.7%
16-18%35.9%
<16%15.9%
20%+8.2%
18-20%40.4%
16-18%35.6%
<16%16.0%
20%+7.9%
18-20%40.2%
16-18%35.9%
<16%15.9%
20%+8.2%
18-20%40.1%
16-18%35.8%
<16%16.3%
20%+8.2%
18-20%39.0%
16-18%36.5%
<16%15.9%
20%+8.3%
18-20%39.1%
16-18%36.7%
<16%15.8%
20%+8.4%
18-20%39.1%
16-18%36.7%
<16%15.5%
20%+8.2%
18-20%40.6%
16-18%35.8%
<16%15.5%
20%+8.2%
18-20%40.3%
16-18%36.0%
<16%15.4%
20%+8.6%
18-20%40.4%
16-18%35.6%
<16%15.4%
20%+8.6%
18-20%40.4%
16-18%35.6%
<16%15.5%
20%+7.6%
18-20%39.7%
16-18%37.2%
<16%15.5%
20%+7.6%
18-20%39.7%
16-18%37.2%
<16%15.4%
20%+7.6%
18-20%39.9%
16-18%37.1%
<16%15.4%
20%+7.6%
18-20%39.9%
16-18%37.1%
<16%15.5%
20%+7.6%
18-20%39.7%
16-18%37.2%
<16%15.5%
20%+7.6%
18-20%39.7%
16-18%37.2%
<16%15.5%
20%+7.6%
18-20%39.7%
16-18%37.2%
<16%15.5%
20%+7.6%
18-20%39.7%
16-18%37.2%
<16%15.4%
20%+7.6%
18-20%39.9%
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20%+4.4%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.4%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.3%
18-20%34.2%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.4%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.4%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.3%
18-20%34.2%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.3%
18-20%34.2%
16-18%40.5%
<16%20.9%
20%+4.6%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.4%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.4%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.3%
18-20%34.2%
16-18%40.5%
<16%20.9%
20%+4.8%
18-20%34.0%
16-18%40.3%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.4%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.4%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.4%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.3%
18-20%34.2%
16-18%40.5%
<16%20.9%
20%+4.7%
18-20%34.0%
16-18%40.4%
<16%20.9%
20%+4.5%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.4%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.4%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.5%
<16%20.9%
20%+4.6%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.4%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.5%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.4%
<16%20.9%
20%+4.5%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.4%
<16%20.9%
20%+4.7%
18-20%34.0%
16-18%40.4%
<16%20.9%
20%+4.8%
18-20%34.0%
16-18%40.3%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.5%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.4%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.3%
18-20%34.2%
16-18%40.5%
<16%20.9%
20%+4.5%
18-20%34.1%
16-18%40.4%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.2%
18-20%34.2%
16-18%40.6%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.1%
18-20%34.2%
16-18%40.6%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.0%
18-20%34.6%
16-18%40.4%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.1%
18-20%34.3%
16-18%40.6%
<16%20.9%
20%+4.2%
18-20%34.5%
16-18%40.4%
<16%21.0%
20%+3.8%
18-20%34.7%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.0%
20%+3.9%
18-20%34.6%
16-18%40.5%
<16%20.9%
20%+4.0%
18-20%34.6%
16-18%40.4%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.3%
18-20%34.2%
16-18%40.5%
<16%20.9%
20%+4.0%
18-20%34.6%
16-18%40.4%
<16%21.0%
20%+3.9%
18-20%34.6%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.0%
20%+3.9%
18-20%34.6%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.0%
20%+4.0%
18-20%34.6%
16-18%40.4%
<16%20.9%
20%+4.0%
18-20%34.6%
16-18%40.4%
<16%21.0%
20%+3.9%
18-20%34.6%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.0%
20%+3.9%
18-20%34.6%
16-18%40.5%
<16%21.1%
20%+3.5%
18-20%34.8%
16-18%40.7%
<16%21.2%
20%+2.9%
18-20%35.0%
16-18%40.9%
<16%21.2%
20%+2.9%
18-20%35.0%
16-18%40.9%
<16%21.2%
20%+2.9%
18-20%35.0%
16-18%40.9%
<16%21.2%
20%+2.9%
18-20%35.0%
16-18%40.9%
<16%21.2%
20%+2.9%
18-20%35.0%
16-18%40.9%
<16%21.2%
20%+2.9%
18-20%35.0%
16-18%40.9%
<16%21.2%
20%+2.9%
18-20%35.0%
16-18%40.9%
<16%21.2%
20%+2.9%
18-20%35.0%
16-18%40.9%
<16%21.2%
20%+2.9%
18-20%35.0%
16-18%40.9%
<16%21.2%
20%+3.0%
18-20%35.0%
16-18%40.9%
<16%21.2%
20%+3.0%
18-20%35.0%
16-18%40.9%
<16%21.2%
20%+3.1%
18-20%34.9%
16-18%40.8%
<16%21.2%
20%+3.0%
18-20%35.0%
16-18%40.9%
<16%21.3%
20%+3.0%
18-20%34.7%
16-18%41.1%
<16%21.3%
20%+3.1%
18-20%34.6%
16-18%41.0%
<16%21.2%
20%+3.2%
18-20%34.6%
16-18%41.0%
<16%21.3%
20%+3.0%
18-20%34.7%
16-18%41.1%
<16%21.3%
20%+2.9%
18-20%34.7%
16-18%41.1%
<16%21.3%
20%+2.9%
18-20%34.7%
16-18%41.1%
<16%21.3%
20%+2.9%
18-20%34.7%
16-18%41.1%
<16%21.3%
20%+2.9%
18-20%34.7%
16-18%41.1%

Other markets in this election

About the odds

How this question resolves

The market resolves according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Moderate Party (M) in the 13 September 2026 election, defined as the number of valid votes won by the party divided by the total number of valid votes in the election.

If the reported result falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket.

Only vote shares that the Swedish Election Authority attributes to the Moderate Party count. Vote shares attributed to other parties or electoral designations do not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.

If the Moderate Party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the successor party's vote share counts for resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket.

The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves solely based on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (val.se).

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