CANDIDATECASINO General election 2026
Movers 24h <82% 17.9 ▼ 13.9 82-84% 50.9 ▲ 13.7 M 11.0 ▼ 4.6 S 87.6 ▲ 3.8 KD 11.3 ▼ 3.0
M

Ulf Kristersson

Ulf Kristersson, born 29 December 1963, leads the Moderate Party and is priced at 11.0% to become Sweden's next prime minister after the general election on 13 September 2026, in the consensus of Polymarket and Kalshi on 15 September 2026.

Last updated:

Next prime minister after the 2026 election
11.0%
Consensus of 2 sources ▼ 4.6 in 24h

About

Party
Moderate Party
Born

Open markets

MarketProbabilityShare as barSource
Next prime minister after the 2026 election 11.0% Consensus of 2 sources

Last observed:

Moderate Party's markets

MarketProbabilityShare as barSource
Largest party in the 2026 general election 0.0% Consensus of 2 sources
Second-largest party in the 2026 general election 99.2% Consensus of 2 sources
Third-largest party in the 2026 general election 0.2% Consensus of 2 sources
SD or M More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election 100.0% Polymarket
Fourth-largest party in the 2026 general election 0.5% Consensus of 2 sources
Fifth-largest party in the 2026 Riksdag election 0.0% Polymarket
Sixth-Largest Party in the 2026 Riksdag Election 0.0% Polymarket
Seventh-largest party in the 2026 Riksdag election 1.7% Kalshi

Last observed:

Other candidates

About the odds

The consensus figure is a volume-weighted average of de-vigged odds from the sources pricing this outcome. The poll average is never included.