CANDIDATECASINO General election 2026
Movers 24h Over 99.6 - 0.0 Under 0.4 - 0.0

M Over/Under 17% in the 2026 Riksdag Election

Polymarket priced the probability at 99.6% as of 15 September 2026 that the Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of the vote in the 2026 general election.

Last updated:

Leading outcome
99.6%
Over - 0.0 in 24h

Odds

Outcome Probability Odds Spread Spread (pts)
Over Probability 99.6% Odds 1.00 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket99.6%99.6%
Under Probability 0.4% Odds 222.22 Spread Spread (pts)
Sources1 — Polymarket only
PlatformImpliedDe-viggedObserved
Polymarket0.4%0.4%

Fresh — Odds updated: Methodology

Odds over time

The price over time, one line per outcome.

Odds over time100%50%0%10 Sep15 Sep100%
Under — — 0.4%
OutcomeObservedProbability
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.7%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.4%
Over99.6%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under0.5%
Over99.5%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under5.0%
Over95.0%
Under43.5%
Over56.5%
Under43.5%
Over56.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under48.5%
Over51.5%
Under49.5%
Over50.5%
Under27.5%
Over72.5%
Under41.0%
Over59.0%
Under41.0%
Over59.0%
Under41.0%
Over59.0%
Under41.0%
Over59.0%
Under41.0%
Over59.0%
Under41.0%
Over59.0%
Under61.5%
Over38.5%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under38.0%
Over62.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.5%
Over64.5%
Under35.5%
Over64.5%
Under35.5%
Over64.5%
Under35.5%
Over64.5%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under30.5%
Over69.5%
Under30.5%
Over69.5%
Under30.5%
Over69.5%
Under30.5%
Over69.5%
Under30.5%
Over69.5%
Under30.5%
Over69.5%
Under30.5%
Over69.5%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under40.0%
Over60.0%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under39.5%
Over60.5%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.5%
Over66.5%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under32.0%
Over68.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under31.5%
Over68.5%
Under32.5%
Over67.5%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under33.0%
Over67.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.5%
Over64.5%
Under35.5%
Over64.5%
Under34.0%
Over66.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%
Under35.0%
Over65.0%

Other markets in this election

About the odds

How this question resolves

This market will resolve to "Over" if the Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election.

This market will resolve to "Under" if the Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

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