candidatecasino.com
candidatecasino.com is a permanent, public archive of election betting odds and prediction-market prices, normalised across venues and set against polling.
Last updated:
Three elections, one day
13 Sept 2026 · polls 08:00–20:00
Predicted
35markets
The 2026 general election
All 349 seats · 4% national threshold Next prime minister after the 2026 electionLargest party in the 2026 general electionSecond-largest party in the 2026 general electionThird-largest party in the 2026 general election Riksdag → Reference 20regionsThe 2026 region election
Healthcare and public transport · 3% threshold Stockholm County — 2022 region electionVästra Götaland — 2022 region election Region → Reference 290municipalitiesThe 2026 municipal election
Schools, social services, planning · 2–3% threshold Stockholm Municipality — 2022 municipal electionGothenburg — 2022 municipal electionMalmö — 2022 municipal electionTrollhättan — 2022 municipal election Municipality →Only the Riksdag election is priced by betting markets. The region and municipal councils are described from the official count.
The 2026 general election
35 markets
Next prime minister after the 2026 election
SMagdalena Andersson
88.0%1.14
no poll equivalent · ▼ 0.5
Largest party in the 2026 general election
SSwedish Social Democratic Party
100.0%1.00
no poll equivalent · ▲ 0.9
Second-largest party in the 2026 general election
MModerate Party
99.2%1.01
no poll equivalent · ▲ 0.2
Third-largest party in the 2026 general election
SDSweden Democrats
98.9%1.01
no poll equivalent · - 0.0
Tidö majority in the 2026 general election
?Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?
3.4%29.41
1 venue only · ▼ 1.4
Liberals win seats in the 2026 general election
LLiberals
100.0%1.00
1 venue only · ▲ 0.2
SD or M More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election
MModerate Party
100.0%1.00
1 venue only · - 0.0
V or MP More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election
VLeft Party
99.8%1.00
1 venue only · ▼ 0.1
V or C More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election
VLeft Party
99.8%1.00
1 venue only · - 0.0
V or KD More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election
VLeft Party
100.0%1.00
1 venue only · - 0.0
MP or C More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election
CCentre Party
100.0%1.00
1 venue only · - 0.0
MP or KD More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election
KDChristian Democrats
59.5%1.68
1 venue only · ▲ 3.0
C or KD More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election
CCentre Party
99.9%1.00
1 venue only · - 0.0
Fourth-largest party in the 2026 general election
VLeft Party
13.6%7.36
no poll equivalent · ▲ 0.2
Fifth-largest party in the 2026 Riksdag election
CCentre Party
6.8%14.60
1 venue only · - 0.0
Sixth-Largest Party in the 2026 Riksdag Election
KDChristian Democrats
5.8%17.38
1 venue only · ▼ 0.2
Turnout in the 2026 Riksdag election
?82-84%
46.0%2.17
1 venue only · ▲ 3.9
S's margin of victory in the 2026 Riksdag election
?S 7-10%
87.7%1.14
1 venue only · ▼ 5.2
S over/under 31% in the 2026 general election
?Under
100.0%1.00
1 venue only · - 0.0
SD Over or Under 19% in the 2026 Riksdag Election
?Under
100.0%1.00
1 venue only · - 0.0
M Over/Under 17% in the 2026 Riksdag Election
?Over
99.6%1.00
1 venue only · - 0.0
V over/under 7% in the 2026 Riksdag election
?Over
100.0%1.00
1 venue only · - 0.0
MP over/under 7% in the 2026 general election
?Under
99.5%1.01
1 venue only · - 0.0
KD Over/Under 6% in the 2026 Riksdag Election
?Over
93.7%1.07
1 venue only · ▼ 0.4
S's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election
?27-30%
99.8%1.00
1 venue only · ▲ 0.7
SD's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election
?16-18%
98.5%1.02
1 venue only · ▼ 0.9
M's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election
?18-20%
93.2%1.07
1 venue only · ▼ 1.3
Left Party (V) Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election
?7-9%
99.6%1.00
1 venue only · - 0.0
MP's Vote Share in the 2026 General Election
?5-7%
99.3%1.01
1 venue only · - 0.0
Centre Party's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election
?7-9%
84.0%1.19
1 venue only · ▲ 7.5
KD's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election
?5-7%
99.1%1.01
1 venue only · - 0.0
S Seat Count in the 2026 Riksdag Election
?<105
99.7%1.00
1 venue only · - 0.0
C over/under 6% in the 2026 general election
?Over
100.0%1.00
1 venue only · - 0.0
Örebropartiet Win Seats in the 2026 Riksdag Election
?Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats?
0.8%133.33
1 venue only · ▲ 0.3
Seventh-largest party in the 2026 Riksdag election
MPGreen Party
72.2%1.39
1 venue only · ▲ 2.4
All markets
35 markets across 2 venues.
Sweden's elections