# Kalshi's de-vig pulls the Social Democrats' odds down nearly 4 points further than Polymarket's does Consensus odds that the Social Democrats win the most seats in the 13 September 2026 general election stood at 97.4% at 14:04 UTC on 14 August 2026, combining two venues whose own de-vigged figures — 97.9% on Polymarket and 94.7% on Kalshi — differed by nearly four percentage points. By candidatecasino.com — Last updated: 2026-08-16 ## What the market says The method behind candidatecasino.com's consensus figure is set out on the methodology page: each venue's own odds are de-vigged proportionally to 1.0 before being combined into a volume-weighted mean. At 14:04 UTC on 14 August 2026 that calculation put the Social Democrats at 97.4% to win the most seats in the general election, against 1.0% for the Sweden Democrats and 0.2% for the Moderate Party, with every other party under 0.2%. That figure is the combination of the two venues — not either venue's own number. What each venue showed on its own, before and after de-vig, is the point of this post. ## Two venues, two different corrections Polymarket ("sweden-parliamentary-election-winner") quoted the Social Democrats at an implied probability of 97.9% at 14:04:29 UTC on 14 August 2026. The market lists nine outcomes, and their implied probabilities summed to roughly 99.95% — already almost exactly 1.0 before de-vig. The correction up to 1.0 was therefore small: the de-vigged figure came out at 97.9%, effectively unchanged. Kalshi ("KXSWEDENPARLI-26") quoted the same party at an implied probability of 98.9% at 14:04:30 UTC the same day — higher than Polymarket's figure. But Kalshi lists only five parties (Social Democrats, Sweden Democrats, Moderate Party, Green Party and Left Party), and their implied probabilities summed to about 104.4%. De-vig scales all five down proportionally to 1.0, and the Social Democrats' share of that excess is the largest because the party already carries the largest share of the five. The result: a de-vigged figure of 94.7% — 4.2 points below the implied figure, and 3.2 points below Polymarket's de-vigged figure. ## Why the corrections differ in size How large a de-vig correction is depends on how much "overround" — the amount summing past 1.0 — a market carries, and how that overround is spread across outcomes. Polymarket's nine outcomes summed to almost exactly 1.0, so there was almost no overround to distribute. Kalshi's five outcomes summed to about 1.044, and because the Social Democrats accounted for the overwhelming share of the combined probability, the party also carried the overwhelming share of the correction. This is not a sign that either venue is wrong — it is what happens when one venue de-vigs over fewer outcomes than the other. The methodology page sets out the proportional de-vig method in full, and why it is applied per market, over the outcomes that market actually lists. ## What it means for the consensus figure The 97.4% consensus figure is a volume-weighted mean of Polymarket's 97.9% and Kalshi's 94.7% — not a plain average, which would give 96.3%. Polymarket carried about $92,648 in volume against Kalshi's roughly $19,025 at those observation times, giving Polymarket about 83% of the weight in the calculation. That is why the consensus figure sits closer to Polymarket's de-vigged figure than halfway between the two. No single venue's price is called a "consensus" on this site — see the methodology page for how that rule is applied and why. ## Mentioned in this post - [The 2026 general election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/) - [Largest party in the 2026 general election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/largest-party/) - [Swedish Social Democratic Party — Swedish parliamentary party](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/parties/swedish-social-democratic-party/) ## About the odds The consensus figure is a weighted average of de-vigged odds from the sources pricing this outcome. - [Methodology](https://candidatecasino.com/en/info/methodology/) - [About](https://candidatecasino.com/en/info/about/) — candidatecasino.com - [About](https://candidatecasino.com/en/info/about/) - [Privacy](https://candidatecasino.com/en/info/privacy/) - [Methodology](https://candidatecasino.com/en/info/methodology/) - [Svenska](https://candidatecasino.com/sv/sverige/analys/sa-paverkar-devigging-socialdemokraternas-odds/)