# The 2026 general election Sweden's general election on 13 September 2026 decides all 349 members of the Riksdag, and a party needs at least 4% of the national vote to enter it. Last updated: 2026-09-15 14:37 UTC ## Who will be the next prime minister? | Candidate | Probability | Source | | --- | --- | --- | | Magdalena Andersson | 87.6% | Consensus of 2 sources | | Ulf Kristersson | 11.0% | Consensus of 2 sources | | Ebba Busch | 0.6% | Consensus of 2 sources | | Jimmie Åkesson | 0.3% | Consensus of 2 sources | | Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist | 0.2% | [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-sweden) | | Amanda Lind | 0.1% | [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-sweden) | | Anna-Karin Hatt | 0.1% | [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-sweden) | | Daniel Helldén | 0.1% | [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-sweden) | | Nooshi Dadgostar | 0.1% | [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-sweden) | | Simona Mohamsson | 0.1% | [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-sweden) | Fresh Odds updated: 2026-09-15 14:37 UTC [Methodology](https://candidatecasino.com/en/info/methodology/) ## All markets - [Next prime minister after the 2026 election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/prime-minister-after-the-election/) - [Largest party in the 2026 general election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/largest-party/) - [Second-largest party in the 2026 general election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/second-largest-party/) - [Third-largest party in the 2026 general election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/third-largest-party/) - [Tidö majority in the 2026 general election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/tido-majority/) - [Liberals win seats in the 2026 general election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/liberals-win-seats/) - [SD or M More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/sd-or-m-most-votes/) - [V or MP More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/v-or-mp-more-votes/) - [V or C More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/v-or-c-more-votes/) - [V or KD More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/v-or-kd-more-votes/) - [MP or C More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/mp-c-most-votes/) - [MP or KD More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/mp-or-kd-more-votes/) - [C or KD More Votes in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/c-or-kd-more-votes/) - [Fourth-largest party in the 2026 general election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/fourth-largest-party/) - [Fifth-largest party in the 2026 Riksdag election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/fifth-largest-party/) - [Sixth-Largest Party in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/sixth-largest-party/) - [Turnout in the 2026 Riksdag election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/turnout/) - [S's margin of victory in the 2026 Riksdag election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/s-margin-of-victory/) - [S over/under 31% in the 2026 general election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/s-over-under-31-percent/) - [SD Over or Under 19% in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/sd-over-under-19/) - [M Over/Under 17% in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/m-over-under-17-percent/) - [V over/under 7% in the 2026 Riksdag election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/v-over-under-7-percent/) - [MP over/under 7% in the 2026 general election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/mp-over-under-7-percent/) - [KD Over/Under 6% in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/kd-over-under-6-percent/) - [S's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/s-vote-share/) - [SD's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/sd-vote-share/) - [M's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/m-vote-share/) - [Left Party (V) Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/v-vote-share/) - [MP's Vote Share in the 2026 General Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/mp-vote-share/) - [Centre Party's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/c-vote-share/) - [KD's Vote Share in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/kd-vote-share/) - [S Seat Count in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/s-seat-count/) - [C over/under 6% in the 2026 general election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/c-over-under-6-percent/) - [Örebropartiet Win Seats in the 2026 Riksdag Election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/orebropartiet-win-seats/) - [Seventh-largest party in the 2026 Riksdag election](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/2026/general-election/seventh-largest-party/) ## About the general election The Riksdag election is held every four years, on the second Sunday in September, and decides all 349 seats in Sweden's single-chamber parliament. Of those seats, 310 are fixed constituency seats and 39 are adjustment seats, allocated to make the distribution between parties as proportional as possible across the whole country. A party must win at least 4% of the vote nationally to enter the Riksdag, or at least 12% of the vote in a single constituency to win seats there alone. A candidate can also be elected directly by personal vote, which requires at least 5% of their party's ballots in the constituency. Who becomes prime minister is decided by the Riksdag after the election, through a vote in which the Speaker proposes a candidate, who is confirmed unless a majority of MPs vote against. ## Analysis - [Prime-minister odds fall to 77.6% - a new low](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/analysis/prime-minister-odds-fall-to-a-new-low/) - [Why prediction markets can be used to predict real-world outcomes](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/analysis/why-prediction-markets-work/) - [How odds turn into probability: implied probability, overround and de-vigging](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/analysis/implied-probability-overround-and-de-vigging/) - [The Social Democrats and the largest-party market's de-vig](https://candidatecasino.com/en/sweden/analysis/how-de-vigging-changes-the-social-democrats-odds/) ## Sources - [Valmyndigheten, "Distribution of seats"](https://www.val.se/servicelankar/otherlanguages/englishengelska/electoralsystem/distributionofseats.4.1dac782216e1e29d7891891.html) - [Sveriges riksdag, "Elections to the Riksdag"](https://www.riksdagen.se/en/how-the-riksdag-works/democracy/elections-to-the-riksdag/) - [Sveriges riksdag, "How a government is formed"](https://www.riksdagen.se/en/how-the-riksdag-works/democracy/how-a-government-is-formed/) - [About](https://candidatecasino.com/en/info/about/) - [Privacy](https://candidatecasino.com/en/info/privacy/) - [Methodology](https://candidatecasino.com/en/info/methodology/) - [Svenska](https://candidatecasino.com/sv/sverige/2026/riksdagsval/)